Dmitry Gorenburg (@russmil) and I wrote an article for WaPo outlining what we think we know about the Russian military buildup. I'm going to summarize the content here. Long thread. /1
Forces near Ukraine (250-300km) can be estimated at 60 battalion tactical groups (BTGs). These are task organized combined arms formations, averaging 800 personnel in size, but structure varies. Can be 600-1000. However, BTGs are a rough way to measure. 2/
Permanently based ground forces around Ukraine constitute 55-60k. Roughly half of these 60 BTGs are therefore being counted from units garrisoned in the area, the other half represents the buildup. We are using BTGs that could be generated as an imperfect unit of measurement. 3/
When we total the number of Russian forces from perm based and those of recently added formations it is likely to be 85,000+. This does not include Russian led separatist forces in the Donbas (going to ballpark that at about another 15k but much lower combat effectiveness). /4
We're not counting aerospace or naval forces in this equation, just ground troops. The 60 BTGs therefore represent about 35% of Russia's total available BTG formations. More are on the way from Eastern Military District and will increase that number next week. /5
The addition of 30 BTGs technically more than doubles Russian ground force offensive potential. But the units sent thus far are equipment without personnel. They are prepositioning equipment, not sending manned formations. Deploying this way is less expensive and disruptive. 6/
Troops back at their garrisons still need equipment to train and maintain skills, participate in exercises, etc. so it is not cost free, but much less so than if they were away from their bases. When the Russian military sends personnel it will be an important indicator. 7/
While some training can be conducted in forward-deployed locations, it is constrained by available facilities, so if you send personnel it ends up draining combat readiness and morale, which will affect actual performance in a conflict. /8
Prepositioning equipment makes this deployment more sustainable, less expensive, and gives Moscow greater freedom to select the timing of an operation while retaining the element of surprise. But the more they mass, the more disruptive it is to the military's overall readiness.
I just want to reinforce that these are estimates. The presence of numbers in any conversation can convey false certainty, but we have to appreciate that there is a fair bit we don't know.
The reason I made this thread is because someone couldn't read the WaPo article and wrote 'democracy is behind a paywall' in their twitter comment. And I thought, that's kind of funny, but this person has a point, its hard to get information to people through a paywall.
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