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Michael Levitt Profile picture
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Jan 16,, 5 tweets, 3 min read
USA Omicron has peaked. Daily new cases on the decline.

Open Sheet:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Big states looking good too.

California 130K cases/day at peak on 19-Jan.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Florida 59K cases/day at peak on 7-Jan.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Texas 67K cases/day at peak on 14-Jan.

Least certain as Exponential Growth Rate blue line so odd.

Used observation that U time-constant is 10 to 13 days for most Omicron outbreaks, set Fit Days to 12 days to get U=13 days

Sheet by @USMortality crucial for online science!
Texas Google Sheet at
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

All these open 5.53U Sheets easily customize for any state using @HRenkel instructions at
dropbox.com/s/1k8u1fe2l46g…

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More from @MLevitt_NP2013

Michael Levitt Profile picture
Jan 16,
Just so Europe does not feel left out, here are some of the larger countries.

All use the same 5.5W sheet
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Spain 133,000 cases/day at peak on 12-Jan.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Italy 181,000 cases/day on peak on 13-Jan.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Germany 72,000 cases/day on peak on 20-Jan.

This new Omicron outbreak comes on the heels of previous outbreak (Delta? that peaked 25-Nov-21). Set start to 25-Dec, later that with 13-Dec. start.

Anyone know if outbreaks in different places like Holland
Read 5 tweets
Michael Levitt Profile picture
Aug 8, 2021
As someone who broke the news to Israeli leaders on Sweden’s handling of COVID-19 in Mar. 2020, I am so distressed to be reading this now m.ynet.co.il/articles/hj30k…

When will Homo Sapiens realize that we can never stop a tiny virus & re-engineer human biology by force not smarts?
Please note that the two translation are automatic. I give independent results from Microsoft and Google. The original is in Hebrew.

Taking this opportunity to rejoice in machine translation. It it so worthwhile to get used to its quirks.
Fortunately age-adjusted excess death in Israel for the 75 weeks from 1-Jan-20 to 6-Jun-21 is almost as small as that in Sweden (<2% of natural death in 75 weeks)

Economic, social, medical & educational cost to Israel likely higher than to Sweden.

Does anyone have good data?
Read 5 tweets
Michael Levitt Profile picture
Jul 11, 2021
1/n
 Growth of COVID-19 outbreaks may seems specialized, but is crucially important.

If growing by commonly used Logistic function, early growth is exponential & forecast of outcome is impossible.

For Gompertz function, growth is slowing from start allowing forecast of end.
2/n
 Described on YouTube year ago, this is still not widely understood


Then we focused on small outbreaks (1000's cases) well-contained in New Zealand and South Korea.

Stimulated by @Marco_Piani & @PienaarJm, we now analyze Lompardy, NYC, UK & Spain.
3/n
 Before releasing results & Excel fits, I describe the growth functions and then show raw data.

If you want to learn about growth functions, study the properties of the functions so that you can identify how the real data changes.

I got this wrong from 1-Feb-20 to 20-Mar-20. Image
Read 4 tweets
Michael Levitt Profile picture
May 30, 2021
I am sure that there will be something that correlates with COVID19 death rate better that the stringency of restrictions.

Finding it is important!

The entire world needs to know what to do the next time there is a serious viral threat.
1/8
 Interesting replies led me to carefully analyze data in @youyanggu GitHub table. Alway more objective when one collects data, another analyses it.

Looking at data so first tidy table in Excel.

Color formatting is red-yellow-green low value to high. Image
2/8
 Rather than make plots of one measure against another, we get the correlation coefficient of all pairs of measures.

Correlation coefficient, CC, of A to B is same as CC of B to A so table is symmetric. Correlation coefficient of A to A is always 1; it is whited out here. Image
Read 9 tweets
Michael Levitt Profile picture
Mar 21, 2021
1/7
 Excess death (E) in any period is the difference between the actual all-cause deaths and those that are expected. Expected deaths in the current year, c, can be calculated in many ways. Easiest is to use the data from a few recent years as a reference (we use, 2017 to 2019).
2/7
 Data can be used in 3 ways to calculate expected deaths.
(1) as average death in the reference years.
(2) as average corrected for the change in total population.
(3) as average for each age band corrected for its population, what we call age-adjusted.

We use 5 age bands.
3/7
 (1) If D(i) is death in reference years i, then expected death in year c is E(c)=average[D(i)].
(2) If P(i) is population; E(c)=P(c)*average[D(i)/P(i)].
(3) If (P(i,j) is population of age band j in year i, D(i,j) the corresponding death; E(c,j)=P(c,j)*average[D(i,j)/P(i,j)]
Read 7 tweets
Michael Levitt Profile picture
Mar 11, 2021
Thanks all. Link is ynet.co.il/news/article/B…

Your analyses in reply to @AlexBerenson are wonderful.

I worry that the number of deaths (0, 1 & 2 vaccines) averages 46/day for first 6 weeks. Real Israeli deaths then are 171/day, 3.7X more.

Something is wrong. Please help me.
@ynetnews @adiryanko @Blitz20191 @AlexBerenson @MatanHolzer @dvir_a @boulderfish
Sorry I missed you analyses. Just for a little sanity check. In Israel there are ~45,000 deaths each year (about 124/day). This year expected 47,000/year or 129/day. Where are missing deaths?
·
I am wrong as this is just Covid19 deaths. Sorry...
Read 4 tweets

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