The current Russian stance is not cost-free. Russia is pushing Sweden and Finland ever closer to NATO and risks causing rather than preventing NATO enlargement (Ukraine and Georgia have not been likely to join anyways) /1
Which opens a road to a strategy involving those countries with 3 pillars: announce that Sweden and Finland will join should an attack happen. /2
The second pillar is the hardest: Eastern Europe, Germany and Italy need to find (and get help finding) alternatives to Russian gas (NS2 is more of an indicator of that problem than the problem itself - with or without NS2 Russia will have them on the hook) /3
And the third pillar: Russia needs to be offered a positive perspective. The Russian people are not enemies - and a narrative that pits them against us is not helpful. /4
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