Lots of people asking if UK cases are really falling, or have we just exceeded testing capacity or seeing effect of the pause in requiring confirmatory PCRs
By comparing ONS infection survey to dashboard cases, we see the trends match. The fall in cases in recent days is real ✅
By comparing ONS infection survey to dashboard cases, we see the trends match. The fall in cases in recent days is real ✅
There is of course some variation, e.g prevalence in Yorkshire still climbing when reported cases began falling, but even there we clearly see a slowdown in ONS series, and looking across all regions it’s clear that those minor discrepancies are the exceptions that prove the rule
On top of that, new cases in hospitals — where testing capacity is certainly not limited — are flat or falling in all UK nations & regions, with that peak coming a week or so after cases turned, exactly as expected. Absolutely zero reason not to trust that infection peak is real.
Once again, we should really be immensely grateful to the team at @ONS, whose random sample survey providing regular and representative estimates of prevalence is truly world-leading, and the absolute gold standard in pandemic surveillance.
Belated link to said survey: ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
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