This tweet from my friend @knowerofmarkets definitely got me thinking this morning.

Is it true that there's no place for long-term investors in crypto?

(mini-thread)๐Ÿ‘‡
Take the Curve Wars.

Crypto Twitter, for the time being, has moved on to other things.

That doesn't mean that the fundamental conditions behind the Curve Wars have disappeared.

CT (and its childlike attention span) has moved on, but the fundamental value in $CRV still holds.
Meanwhile, ST investors are rotating out of it, riding the wave from MAYBE $3 (if they got in early) to $5ish.

While the LT holders don't sell after buying at $1.50.

People like @noahseidman have been talking about $CRV for ages. That guy NEVER sells.

So ST traders leaving puts the advantage back to long-term holders.

Traders/flippers/rotators chase narratives and market sentiment.

Investors chase long-term market efficiency. These are the rare 100x's you sometimes see.
The short-term trade is often crowded and leads to lots of people getting burned as the pump fades.

While long-term holders are comfy and convicted.

LT investors, if I had to guess, often come from traditional finance markets where holding periods are many dozens of years.
Crypto is rife with market inefficiency, that's one reason it's so much easier to make money here than in traditional markets.

And you can often find something that's undervalued/not priced in with crypto assets. That's a lot less common in TradFi.
My point is, this game will take place across many years and hundreds of iterations.

Crypto Twitter leads to mass FOMO and lack of conviction.

Do you want to beat your favorite influencer? Or do you want financial freedom?

Find LT holds, not quick flips.
Those are my thoughts.

Dumb money flows to smart money.

Coins go from weak hands to strong hands.

Markets get more efficient, not less efficient.

We are early. There is plenty of time.
I had fun writing this thread and thinking about @knowerofmarkets tweet.

What do you think? Do you agree? What am I missing?

Please drop a reply and let me know.

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More from @JackNiewold

Jan 12,
People are piling into the $FTM ecosystem as they realize it's got a few key catalysts in its favor:

โ€ข Strong price momentum
โ€ข @andrecronjetech's ve(3,3) token launch
โ€ข An undervaluation of project TVL
โ€ข A $1b incentive program

So what are the projects I'm looking at?
Well, value will probably accrue back to $FTM, making it a clear option, but for higher-leverage/higher-risk plays, most are looking at ecosystem coins.

Additionally, the top 20 ecosystem coins by TVL all stand to benefit from the new ve(3,3) token launch.
First, a top-down look at $FTM protocols by TVL.

Measuring protocols by TVL/MKT CAP isn't a perfect way to find undervaluation, but it can give us a place to start when gem-hunting.

Here's a table of the following coins and their $ETH analogs:

(Not a perfect comparison)
Read 17 tweets
Jan 11,
ve(3,3) could change DeFi forever.

@andrecronje, @danielesesta, and @FantomFDN have banded together to create a new, secretive, and highly anticipated project.

Here's a thread of everything we know (and some speculation) on the protocol:

Also, how to play the trade: ๐Ÿงต๐Ÿ‘‡
THE TOKEN: Currently referred to as ve(3,3), it's speculated from the below (censored) image that it will be called 'SOLID'.

It will use the same:

โ€ข 've' (vote escrow) mechanics as protocols like Convex and Curve
โ€ข staking/dilution mechanics (3,3) as OlympusDAO.
Vote Escrow: locking for longer periods of time gives you higher rewards and a larger share in voting the governance of the protocol.

But you have to lock and thus cannot sell your tokens

( $CVX and $CRV )

If you're confused, check out this thread:
Read 17 tweets
Jan 10,
THE STATE OF THE CRYPTO MARKET:

A thread of all the bullish and bearish information you could possibly desire right now.

Use it to make the right decision, anon.๐Ÿ‘‡
I spent the morning aggregating all of the information from the smartest, most followed people I know on twitter.

Many are in disagreement, but there's plenty to learn in these volatile time periods.

$BTC is what most are watching right now. Altcoins will respond accordingly.
1. THE BEARS

A lot of traders are very bearish at the moment, suggesting drops and liquidations to dismal prices.

$BTC might do the best, then $ETH, then everything else.

But the following market participants think dollars are the best thing to hold.
Read 22 tweets
Jan 10,
(1/4) If you didn't catch it, $SPELL just added two 0%-interest lending markets, $wBTC and $wETH

I see this as a move meant to help the protocol sustain itself through bearish times.

$BTC and $ETH are the hardiest, most downside-resistant assets in a bear market.
(2/4) So people are willing to borrow against them even in bearish times.

As long as Abracadabra can sustain TVL it can continue to be valuable.

And while demand for leverage dries up in a bear market, *hopefully* these two assets can drive new borrowing demand.
(3/4) But that demand is far from dried up, for now.

Despite market-wide liquidations, there is still plenty of demand for both $UST and $sSpell borrowing 'cauldrons'.

Despite a $1 billion lending market for $UST, it remains very much in demand with just $1800 available.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 5,
I've been doing a deep dive on Fantom ๐Ÿ‘ป over the last month and I'm convinced the token is undervalued.

But what if it's not just $FTM that's trading at an undervaluation?

What if it's the entire Fantom dApp ecosystem?

Here's why DeFi on $FTM will moon in 2022:๐Ÿ‘‡

(thread)
A straightforward way to understand crypto assets is Total Value Locked: the $ value of assets tied up in a given protocol.

TVL might not predict a price pump, but it can tell you if a protocol is over/undervalued compared to peers.

And believe me, Fantom DeFi is undervalued:
Here's a look at Fantom DeFi apps compared to their Ethereum counterparts, all measured in terms of Mkt Cap/TVL.

These apps are direct copies of Ethereum apps, but they're trading at a discount relative to TVL.

(All except Cream/Scream)
Read 12 tweets
Dec 29, 2021
The Curve Wars are in full tilt.

The early skirmishes are being fought.

Here's everything you need to know about $CRV and $CVX (Convex), the war between protocols to accumulate them, and how you can make money on the trade.

(A thread in 3 parts) ๐Ÿ‘‡
PART 1: THE LIQUIDITY PROBLEM

DEXes rely on Automated Market Makers (AMMs) to function.

These AMMs rebalance with every crypto swap/trade. With every sale, price goes down.

The more liquidity in the liquidity pool, the better, as price doesn't slip/rebalance as much.
This is important for any crypto asset, as illiquid pairs mean buyers and sellers get a worse deal.

You sometimes see this when buying microcaps. DEXes ask you to adjust slippage tolerance, which basically means the price of your asset is changing due to your trade.
Read 20 tweets

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