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Jacob F Kirkegaard Profile picture
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Jan 18 • 12 tweets • 7 min read
Har nu et par gange læst @JeppeKofod's interview med @ToreKeller om DK's EU politik og et kommende nyt "bredt Europa politisk forlig" i @folketinget. En🧵om implikationerne i det der bliver sagt. information.dk/udland/2022/01…
(2) DK i ❤️af EU (ikke mere udenomssnak om "Europa" eller "vores kontinent"... det er EU det her drejer sig om!), som lige nu trues af den største væbnede trussels siden 1989, uden et opgør med forsvarsforbeholdet og de andre forbehold synes "real politisk problematisk", men på
(3) den anden side hvis man lukker "forbeholds-dørene", så må man jo være villig til at åbne andre EU døre... hvis man altså vil udover de tomme politiske floskler. Her signalerer @jeppekofod IMO nye og potentielt konstruktive toner med ny "kompromisvilje" overfor sparepolitikken
(4) og den af statsministeren annoncerede "klimaunion". Det er givet god politik da Danmark's EU venner i den "sparsommelige gruppe" idag reelt udgøres af en korruptionsplaget østrigsk regering, og EU med #NGEU fonden har taget et stort finanspolitisk integrationsskridt fremad
(5) Den politiske treenighed af 1) "opgør med DK's traditionelle EU sparepolitik", 2) klimaunion og 3) "nix pille ved DK's forbehold" giver reelt kun mening, såfremt DK vil være villig til at støtte nye fælles EU klima investeringer baseret på NGEU-modellen, når (ikke hvis!)
(6) disse kommer på EU's dagsorden måske allerede på det af @EmmanuelMacron annoncerede EU topmøde om "fremtidens finanspolitik" d. 10-11 marts... hvorfor skulle Macron afholde et sådant topmøde en måned inden sit eget genvalg, hvis ikke han regnede med et for ham "politisk godt
(7) resultat"? Finanspolitik er simpelthen "❤️ af EU" idag, og er man ikke med her, er man per definition ikke med i ❤️. Og det er jo rart for en regering som ikke vil røre DK's forbehold at flere fælles EU klima investeringer på NGEU-maner netop IKKE er berørt af disse forbehold
(8) Man mangler jo stadigt at tage den politiske konsekvens i DK af at NGEU flytter finanspolitisk integration fra eurozonen til EU27 niveau, og DK derfor er 100% med i den... på trods af vores forbehold, men med alle de muligheder det giver for DK
(9) @regeringDK har med andre ord KUN EN vej ind i ❤️af EU (udenom forbeholdene), som så heldigvis jo netop er "klimaunionen".... men sådan en koster penge i form af flere fælles EU investeringer, og det må @Statsmin @NWammen @JakobEllemann @SorenPape @sofiecn m.fl. blive enige
(10) om i de kommende måneder... hvis altså DK skal "i ❤️af EU" uden folkeafstemninger etc.... :-) måske man også burde kigge lidt på DK og bankunionen, som @c_lindner jo annoncerede den nye tyske regering vil lægge vægt på? 100% en politisk beslutning reuters.com/world/europe/g…
(11) Der er mao. en potentiel "ny EU strategi" for DK i ❤️hvad @jeppekofod siger, men det kræver at man fra hele @folketinget's side er villig til mere at lade DK indgå direkte og konstruktivt i FÆLLES finansieringen af EU's klimaunion.... til alt held vil dette jo kunne ske med
(12) fuld opbakning fra de partier som "står på erhverslivets side" da der jo ikke kan være tvivl om de økonomiske muligheder for DK virksomheder i en sådan ny DK strategi i EU. @chrbennike @KennethPraefke @MagnusBarsoe @ThomasBerntH @ToreKeller @OleRyborg @KarinEAxelsson

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More from @jfkirkegaard

Jacob F Kirkegaard Profile picture
Sep 27, 2021
A quick DE thread, but I obviously have no idea really about the outcome of intense negotiations ahead. So just some auxiliary observations: 1) strong centrist vote - both AfD and Linke lose and are now de facto consigned to former East Germany with 75+% of vote in Center. 1/n
2) DE will now almost certainly have a 3-party coalition, as a new inverse GroKo with Scholz as Chancellor seem impossible to accept for CDU. This is a break from DE traditional very stable 2-party coalitions and likely heralds the end of very long chancellorships of 15+y 2/n
which will structurally weaken DE in Europe as the chancellor will no longer routinely be the longest ruling big country leader. 3) Coalition negotiations will be messy, as DE has no tradition of a single “royal investigator” at the time to scope out possible coalitions so 3/n
Read 11 tweets
Jacob F Kirkegaard Profile picture
May 6, 2021
Reaching very high levels of immunity from say 90% vaccination rates with more contagious virus variants in circulation seems the ultimate goal for vacc rollouts across the world. Good news is Europe - and UK especially - is reaching such levels for high priority groups now. A 🧵
1) Europe and the US are now facing the challenge of ensuring that up to 90% of also younger age groups ultimately gets vaccinated. Israel - a global frontrunner in vacc rollouts - offer important insights on how to nudge people less personally at risk of covid19 to get jabbed.
2) "The green-pass program worked—not because it proved one’s vaccination status and thereby enabled access to public places, but because it spurred the hesitant to get inoculated. And it worked." economist.com/by-invitation/…
Read 6 tweets
Jacob F Kirkegaard Profile picture
May 5, 2021
An update; Vaccine news are improving across most of the EU as rollout accelerates. HU/MT now near US/UK levels, 3 laggards remains BG, LV and CR, while others roughly on par. Noticeably DE, ES and IT proceeding rapidly through EU vaccination rankings. A 🧵
2) A great communications gift meanwhile was given by @POTUS to the @EU_Commission this week, as US gov now hopes to "vaccinate 70% of adult Americans by July 4th". @vonderleyen could not have wished for more! apnews.com/article/corona…
3) @POTUS's new policy target is rhetorically similar enough to @vonderleyen's own goal of "having enough doses for vaccinating 70% of EU adults in July" to essentially signal to the EU publics and MS that the EU and US will "exit the pandemic together"
Read 12 tweets
Jacob F Kirkegaard Profile picture
Apr 30, 2021
Time to talk global vaccine exports - a topic where data availability (hopefully) will soon improve as opportunities for "vaccine diplomacy" emerge and - despite the Indian tragedy and glaring global inequalities in vacc access, the news is generally quite good. A 🧵
2) Best news (H/T @ChadBown) is that @pfizer is now FINALLY starting to fulfill international contracts also from US located production, following the (alleged) expiry of de facto contractual bans on doing so. Up to 1mn doses now going to Mexico. 👍 reuters.com/business/healt…
3) EU exports continue to rise rapidly and reached - once the earliest shipments in Dec 2020-Jan 2021 are included in the data - ~161mn by late Apr with 148mn since Jan 31st 2021 alone bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 14 tweets
Jacob F Kirkegaard Profile picture
Apr 23, 2021
"We don't have enough to be confident to send it abroad"? This is absurd from @POTUS and US vaccine nationalism at its clearest. Consider what amount of vaccines the US has "on the shelves" now, what it has sent to others and what say the EU has done to date? 🧵
1) The US has per the @CDCgov a current unused stockpile of ~63mn FDA approved vacc doses (@Pfizer/ @moderna_tx / J&J), number that due to slowing vaccination rates as Americans who want it has already got it is rising at over 1mn/day.... covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
2) On top of that US medical experts estimate that the US now has 35-40mn non-FDA approved @AstraZeneca vaccines in storage, that it (given its focus on mRNA vaccines and AZ's side effects) is highly unlikely to ever use
Read 7 tweets
Jacob F Kirkegaard Profile picture
Apr 22, 2021
Time to update the EU Covid vaccine charts. Situation is one of remarkable similarity across EU+NO+IS - with only HU (RU/CH vaccs) and MT (small size) well ahead of rest and BG, LV and CR materially lagging behind EU average. US (now ahead of UK) is well ahead of EU average. 1/n
The relative similarity of majority of EU MS' vacc levels is good news and indicates most MS are using essentially all the vaccines they receive now. Bodes well for ability to scale up as supplies increase. EU contrast to diff. vacc rates among US states is remarkable. 2/n
Focus on "elderly priority groups" highlights that UK program really, really well executed across old ages groups now for 1. jabs, but also that recent US "vacc surge" still leaves many elderly Americans behind, as some EU members have jabbed more elderly than the US 3/n
Read 9 tweets

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