Thread by @jfkirkegaard

Time to talk global vaccine exports - a topic where data availability (hopefully) will soon improve as opportunities for "vaccine diplomacy" emerge and - despite the Indian tragedy and glaring global inequalities in vacc access, the news is generally quite good. A 🧵

2) Best news (H/T @ChadBown) is that @pfizer is now FINALLY starting to fulfill international contracts also from US located production, following the (alleged) expiry of de facto contractual bans on doing so. Up to 1mn doses now going to Mexico. 👍 reuters.com/business/healt…

3) EU exports continue to rise rapidly and reached - once the earliest shipments in Dec 2020-Jan 2021 are included in the data - ~161mn by late Apr with 148mn since Jan 31st 2021 alone bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

4) India in a devastating 2nd wave has (sensibly) halted vacc exports and may begin to import finished vaccs in addition to ingredients already flowing. China meanwhile ramps up vacc'ing and exports, but will also soon being to import 100mn @pfizer vaccs wsj.com/articles/china…

5) Overall ~1.25bn vaccs have by last week of Apr 2021 been produced in the global "Big-4" - China, EU27, U.S. and India. Great news! The top-2 China (~415mn) and EU27 (325mn) have broadly a 50-50 split between domestic deliveries and exports in their total located production.

6) India (~200mn) to date exported roughly 1/3, but has now (sensibly) stopped so % will drop fast, while the 3rd largest global producer in the US (~310mn) has to date exported virtually nothing, as @joebiden (like his predecessor) literally has put "Americans First"

7) In global supply terms UK is a trivial vacc producer, having imported roughly as many doses (from EU27 and India) as it has produced domestically, while no data is available for Russian or other emerging vaccine producers.

8) More geographic detail is available for recent shipments from EU27 locations with JPN (52mn... go #TokyoOlympics!!!), NAFTA (24mn) and the UK (17mn) the largest destinations, while the US stockpile of unused FDA-approved (PFizer/Moderna/J&J) vaccines has now reached 68mn.

9) The US also has perhaps 40-50mn doses of @AstraZeneca vaccines more or less ready, but the Biden Admin will only release them as "as they become available over the next two months", a far too conservative approach it seems with India situation in mind! whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…

10) Much better news for exports from EU27 locations, where depending on your assumptions for monthly or weekly trends continuing, levels should reach 250-300mn by end-Q2. By then EU27 looks likely to be #1GlobalCovidVaccineExportLocation in the world! 👍👍

11) But what is the @EU_Commission @vonderleyen @MamerEric doing to highlight this extraordinary vaccine production success (recall that EU27+NO+IS will also receive ~400-450mn by end-Q2)? Sadly no coherent positive vaccine narrative has been formulated, despite the great news!

12) While EU comms hence remain timid, @POTUS in his recent speech to Congress played up the FDR-comparisons and eloquently mused about "America as arsenal for vaccines for other countries"... despite having to date exported ~zero. :-) #Chutzpah!!! nytimes.com/2021/04/29/us/…

13) SURELY @vonderleyen @ThierryBreton @SKyriakidesEU @MargSchinas & EU leaders can articulate a better description of the EU27 vacc-facts going forward? Start with repeating: #1GlobalCovidVaccineExportLocation + 70% of adults vacc'ed by June/July = general economic reopening!

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