Thread by @jfkirkegaard

A quick DE thread, but I obviously have no idea really about the outcome of intense negotiations ahead. So just some auxiliary observations: 1) strong centrist vote - both AfD and Linke lose and are now de facto consigned to former East Germany with 75+% of vote in Center. 1/n

2) DE will now almost certainly have a 3-party coalition, as a new inverse GroKo with Scholz as Chancellor seem impossible to accept for CDU. This is a break from DE traditional very stable 2-party coalitions and likely heralds the end of very long chancellorships of 15+y 2/n

which will structurally weaken DE in Europe as the chancellor will no longer routinely be the longest ruling big country leader. 3) Coalition negotiations will be messy, as DE has no tradition of a single “royal investigator” at the time to scope out possible coalitions so 3/n

Instead everyone will negotiate with everyone else all the time, as there is no clear election winner. FDP and Greens to “decide” first among themselves who the next chancellor is would be unprecedented but possible. 4) It is clearly advantage SPD as Scholz ran an error free 4/n

Campaign and is widely preferred among voters as next chancellor. Laschet is the opposite, partly to blame for result and without a future in politics unless he becomes chancellor. This political weakness ironically makes him a better partner for Greens/FDP, as he is more 5/n

Likely to accept their demands and real question is if he can get CDU to accept. SPD has additional issue of having to have a member referendum on any coalition. 5) Voter movements indicate that CDU lost almost all votes to Greens and SPD and relatively few to FDP/AfD 6/n

making it electorally dangerous fir them to tag right in opposition = Merz as next leader would seem electoral suicide. 6) FDP gained little while both SPD and Greens gained 5+%, suggesting that FDP will be most keen on entering gov, as what else is purpose of party? Not 7/n

Clear that Lindner can ultimatively demand BMF as smallest party most keen on governing, and if so it is not selfevident that FinMin must represent DE in ECOFIN/EuroGroup. Greens might demand that say Habeck as “Econ/Environ super minister” does so. FDP will be junior party 8/n

In any coalition and must spend political capital wisely - not clear that just saying “no to Europe” would do. All to play for also in Europe in the coalition negotiations, even if FDP might prefer Jamaica and Green Ampel. 7) Everyone would like a quick coalition negotiation 9/n

But political uncertainty and possible counter proposals from “other main party” will dictate that it probably drags on for quite a while. Even forming governments in the Center takes time…. Just ask the Dutch/Belgians! END

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