An update; Vaccine news are improving across most of the EU as rollout accelerates. HU/MT now near US/UK levels, 3 laggards remains BG, LV and CR, while others roughly on par. Noticeably DE, ES and IT proceeding rapidly through EU vaccination rankings. A 🧵
2) A great communications gift meanwhile was given by @POTUS to the @EU_Commission this week, as US gov now hopes to "vaccinate 70% of adult Americans by July 4th". @vonderleyen could not have wished for more! apnews.com/article/corona…
3) @POTUS's new policy target is rhetorically similar enough to @vonderleyen's own goal of "having enough doses for vaccinating 70% of EU adults in July" to essentially signal to the EU publics and MS that the EU and US will "exit the pandemic together"
4) @EU_Commission couldn't wish for a better talking point to refute criticism of its vaccine procurement, as - assuming supplies materialize as planned which seems likely - responsibility for "falling behind the US" will now lie solely with MS govs not utilizing available vaccs
5) Crucially, most MS now use available vaccs close to the speed of supply, implying that actually vacc'ing 70% of EU residents by July is a credible target. EU (and UK) levels of full vacc'ing of high priority groups exceed that of US, despite higher overall US vacc levels.
6) Vaccine access/hesitancy at least among the oldest Europeans much lower than in the US, suggesting overall ~90% adult vacc rates seem feasible in EU/UK later in 2021, as current rollout programs are completed, if younger groups as willing to be jabbed as older Europeans.
7) US vaccination rates meanwhile have dropped significantly since mid-Apr - 1/3 overall and about 1/2 in terms of 1. jabs, so the change in Biden admin strategy is surely right and the "relatively modest" goal of 70% by July 4th sensible.
8) Declining US vacc rates is not predominantly due to the J&J suspension, but related to overall declining demand for vaccinations among Americans, as most "eager for vacc'ing groups" have already done so" and vacc-hesitancy appears robust among GOPers. washingtonpost.com/health/2021/04…
9) US search for arms to jab now instead include financial incentives and - if you are in for instance DC or New Jersey - free beer....
10) Meanwhile US has now begun exporting its first vaccs to CA and MX, hopefully soon following the EU, China and (until recently) India as major vacc producers AND exporters.
11) and finally via @carlzimmer it should be recalled that the world may soon get a 3rd approved mRNA vaccines from @CureVacRNA, well suited for rollout also in emerging markets. End nytimes.com/2021/05/05/hea…
Reaching very high levels of immunity from say 90% vaccination rates with more contagious virus variants in circulation seems the ultimate goal for vacc rollouts across the world. Good news is Europe - and UK especially - is reaching such levels for high priority groups now. A 🧵
1) Europe and the US are now facing the challenge of ensuring that up to 90% of also younger age groups ultimately gets vaccinated. Israel - a global frontrunner in vacc rollouts - offer important insights on how to nudge people less personally at risk of covid19 to get jabbed.
2) "The green-pass program worked—not because it proved one’s vaccination status and thereby enabled access to public places, but because it spurred the hesitant to get inoculated. And it worked." economist.com/by-invitation/…
Time to talk global vaccine exports - a topic where data availability (hopefully) will soon improve as opportunities for "vaccine diplomacy" emerge and - despite the Indian tragedy and glaring global inequalities in vacc access, the news is generally quite good. A 🧵
2) Best news (H/T @ChadBown) is that @pfizer is now FINALLY starting to fulfill international contracts also from US located production, following the (alleged) expiry of de facto contractual bans on doing so. Up to 1mn doses now going to Mexico. 👍 reuters.com/business/healt…
3) EU exports continue to rise rapidly and reached - once the earliest shipments in Dec 2020-Jan 2021 are included in the data - ~161mn by late Apr with 148mn since Jan 31st 2021 alone bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
"We don't have enough to be confident to send it abroad"? This is absurd from @POTUS and US vaccine nationalism at its clearest. Consider what amount of vaccines the US has "on the shelves" now, what it has sent to others and what say the EU has done to date? 🧵
1) The US has per the @CDCgov a current unused stockpile of ~63mn FDA approved vacc doses (@Pfizer/ @moderna_tx / J&J), number that due to slowing vaccination rates as Americans who want it has already got it is rising at over 1mn/day.... covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
2) On top of that US medical experts estimate that the US now has 35-40mn non-FDA approved @AstraZeneca vaccines in storage, that it (given its focus on mRNA vaccines and AZ's side effects) is highly unlikely to ever use
Time to update the EU Covid vaccine charts. Situation is one of remarkable similarity across EU+NO+IS - with only HU (RU/CH vaccs) and MT (small size) well ahead of rest and BG, LV and CR materially lagging behind EU average. US (now ahead of UK) is well ahead of EU average. 1/n
The relative similarity of majority of EU MS' vacc levels is good news and indicates most MS are using essentially all the vaccines they receive now. Bodes well for ability to scale up as supplies increase. EU contrast to diff. vacc rates among US states is remarkable. 2/n
Focus on "elderly priority groups" highlights that UK program really, really well executed across old ages groups now for 1. jabs, but also that recent US "vacc surge" still leaves many elderly Americans behind, as some EU members have jabbed more elderly than the US 3/n
Time to update EU vaccination data; A clearer pic is emerging with MT and HU well ahead due to threshold and timing effect on vacc deliveries (MT) and RU/CH supply (HU), while BG, LV and CR lag behind EU average (Note - NL data a week old) 1/10
Apart from MT/HU at top and BG/LV/CR at bottom, rest of EU27+NO+IS increasingly clustering in the middle as some earlier frontrunners (DK/NO) suspend AZ vaccinations. This = best practices spreading and binding vacc supply (AZ overreliance?) constraints in BG/LV/CR. 2/10
A good news story is - despite it all - the acceleration in FR vaccinations, as gov appears to be using virtually all vaccs as they become available. Simple model suggests (if maintained) FR levels ~225k/day next 14days rising to ~385k/day after Apr 11 for rest of Apr 3/10
@vonderleyen was earlier today kind enough to update EU vaccine supply data. This was actually very very encouraging, as it highlights that the EU27+NO+IS is on target to be able to vaccinate 70% of its 18y+ population by the END OF JUNE with the 4 currently approved vaccines 1/n
Moreover, IF you assume the EU had adopted the UK/US "NO Exports stance" Q1 supply would have been 144mn (not 100mn) and assuming no export + @AstraZeneca contract compliance would yielded ~200mn in Q1 for the EU+NO+IS, or about double the actual 100mn. 2/n
Crucially, actual Q2 supply (if you x2 J&J supply to make them comparable) will be 410mn doses, rising to 520mn if @AstraZeneca had adhered to its contract. EU exports in Q2 are obviously not known yet. 3/n