"We don't have enough to be confident to send it abroad"? This is absurd from @POTUS and US vaccine nationalism at its clearest. Consider what amount of vaccines the US has "on the shelves" now, what it has sent to others and what say the EU has done to date? 🧵
1) The US has per the @CDCgov a current unused stockpile of ~63mn FDA approved vacc doses (@Pfizer/ @moderna_tx / J&J), number that due to slowing vaccination rates as Americans who want it has already got it is rising at over 1mn/day.... covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
2) On top of that US medical experts estimate that the US now has 35-40mn non-FDA approved @AstraZeneca vaccines in storage, that it (given its focus on mRNA vaccines and AZ's side effects) is highly unlikely to ever use
3) In total therefore the US has 100+mn (and rising!) vaccine doses currently on its shelves, while it refuses to export any to anyone, having to date just lent 4.2mn AZ doses to Canada and Mexico. Contrast to what EU vaccine policy enables firms located here to do is striking!
4) @business data show EU approved exports of 136mn doses in 2021 alone, mostly going to US Treaty allies in Japan, UK and its other neighbor in Mexico. Lawsuits has caused US vaccine production capacity to be extremely low for decades (H/T @JuliusWaller) ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
5) but that is no excuse really now for the US government not to allow export of vaccines produced in the US. Exports of crucial vaccine ingredients (incl. to AZ in the EU) from the US no longer suffices. politico.eu/article/astraz…
6) With India in the middle of a deadly 2nd wave, Russia with limited prod capacity, China likely to begin importing Pfizer vaccines for the mainland (with Fosun), the UK a vaccine net importer, only a change in US government policy can likely make a real difference NOW! @POTUS?

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More from @jfkirkegaard

22 Apr
Time to update the EU Covid vaccine charts. Situation is one of remarkable similarity across EU+NO+IS - with only HU (RU/CH vaccs) and MT (small size) well ahead of rest and BG, LV and CR materially lagging behind EU average. US (now ahead of UK) is well ahead of EU average. 1/n
The relative similarity of majority of EU MS' vacc levels is good news and indicates most MS are using essentially all the vaccines they receive now. Bodes well for ability to scale up as supplies increase. EU contrast to diff. vacc rates among US states is remarkable. 2/n
Focus on "elderly priority groups" highlights that UK program really, really well executed across old ages groups now for 1. jabs, but also that recent US "vacc surge" still leaves many elderly Americans behind, as some EU members have jabbed more elderly than the US 3/n
Read 9 tweets
29 Mar
Time to update EU vaccination data; A clearer pic is emerging with MT and HU well ahead due to threshold and timing effect on vacc deliveries (MT) and RU/CH supply (HU), while BG, LV and CR lag behind EU average (Note - NL data a week old) 1/10
Apart from MT/HU at top and BG/LV/CR at bottom, rest of EU27+NO+IS increasingly clustering in the middle as some earlier frontrunners (DK/NO) suspend AZ vaccinations. This = best practices spreading and binding vacc supply (AZ overreliance?) constraints in BG/LV/CR. 2/10
A good news story is - despite it all - the acceleration in FR vaccinations, as gov appears to be using virtually all vaccs as they become available. Simple model suggests (if maintained) FR levels ~225k/day next 14days rising to ~385k/day after Apr 11 for rest of Apr 3/10
Read 11 tweets
17 Mar
@vonderleyen was earlier today kind enough to update EU vaccine supply data. This was actually very very encouraging, as it highlights that the EU27+NO+IS is on target to be able to vaccinate 70% of its 18y+ population by the END OF JUNE with the 4 currently approved vaccines 1/n
Moreover, IF you assume the EU had adopted the UK/US "NO Exports stance" Q1 supply would have been 144mn (not 100mn) and assuming no export + @AstraZeneca contract compliance would yielded ~200mn in Q1 for the EU+NO+IS, or about double the actual 100mn. 2/n
Crucially, actual Q2 supply (if you x2 J&J supply to make them comparable) will be 410mn doses, rising to 520mn if @AstraZeneca had adhered to its contract. EU exports in Q2 are obviously not known yet. 3/n
Read 7 tweets
15 Mar
Hvad skal EU - og derfor DK - goere for at undgaa at den nuvaerende vaccine situation gentages i en fremtidig pandemi som naeppe er 100aar vaek? Det drejer sig om penge og om at EU har nok af dem fra start - mit forslag fra @PIIE + traad #DKpol #dkmedier piie.com/blogs/realtime…
EU har allerede en af verdens stoerste pharma-sektorer og er verdens stoerste producent/eksportoer af vacciner, saa alle ingredienserne er her allerede. Den tilstraekkelige mobilisering kraever blot en mere offensiv EU politik end noget stoerre parti i DK @Spolitik @venstredk 2/9
har haft fantasi til i aartier - desvaerre! Enhver global pandemi vil altid give flaskehalse og alles-kamp-mod-alle saa snart en vaccine er udviklet. Vacciner er risikable og dyre at udvikle, hvorfor indkoeberen skal have evnen til at tage store finansielle risici saa tidligt 3/9
Read 10 tweets
15 Mar
What lessons should the EU and its member states learn to prevent its current troubled vaccine rollout from being repeated in a future where pandemics seem likely to be more frequent? In a new @PIIE piece, I lay out why it is mostly about money! 1/7 piie.com/blogs/realtime…
In any pandemic where vaccines are quickly and successfully developed, it is invariable that supply constraints and a "zero sum" game develop among advanced economies desperate to inoculate their populations. Having, as the EU does, a large domestic pharma-sector is an 2/7
obvious important advantage, but arguably more important is the ability, which the @EU_Commission does currently NOT have, to take large financial/fiscal risks early in the pandemic to ASAP support R&D, scale up production capacity and secure vaccines. The US with Operation 3/7
Read 8 tweets
8 Mar
DK's vaccinationshastighed synes stagnerende - igaar 16-17k/dag. Det er imidlertid ca. det tempo man maa forvente i marts, jf. sidste uges SSI vaccine leverance update, samt annonceringen af en 100k/dag "stoerre skala test" i de kommende uger. 1 hurtig 1/n ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede…
model viser at ca. 16.900/dag (+ en successfuld 100k/dag test) bruger de af SSI forventede vacciner vi faar i marts og indtil paaske. No great - men bedst tilgaengelige data @mikaelmilhoj? Inden man skriger paa handling fra @Statsmin og flere DK regeringsbesoeg hos 2/n
korruptionsanklagede ledere af hoejre-ekstreme koalitionsregeringer i valgkamp i ikke-vaccine producerende lande som ISR, saa gav @vonderleyen et interessant interview til TV i Mette F's "Best friend forever" @sebastiankurz's AT soendag med nogen 3/n orf.at/stories/320437…
Read 8 tweets

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