Thread by @KShriniwasRao

#Thread
Pace at which technology is growing, how pandemic has quickened OTT into our homes, expectation of 5G rollout in telecom sector over next 24 months & how cricket is in the middle of it all this -- with technology as backdrop -- is evolving into a fascinating story. (1/25)

There are some interesting developments taking place behind the scenes in broadcast sector and what all of this culminates into shall have a massive impact on how we consume our cricket. The game earning top-dollar will merely be a by-product of a highly engaging market. (2/25)

I’ll try and share here how I see cricket's media rights playing out over the next eight to 10 months and industry trends that’ll make us sit up and take note as things flow. Action begins in February when BCCI rolls out the media rights tender for IPL. (3/25)

Until 2017-18, digital space in IPL was less than 5% of overall rights package. In 2008, IPL rights were first sold at US$918m & US dollar stood at Rs 40. Total rights value was under Rs 4,000 cr. Digital percentage was so negligible that almost everything was TV-driven. (4/25)

Fast forward to 2017-18, Facebook changed the game with a (unsuccessful) Rs 3,900 cr bid for IPL's digital rights alone. Rights eventually went to Star because of their huge consolidated bid of Rs 16,347 cr but industry took note how far global digital players had moved. (5/25)

Legend has it the Facebook bid made Rupert Murdoch firmly make up his mind on why it was time to sell Fox to a bigger OTT player & diversify. In 10 years, that 5% space had grown into 25% and it was only the beginning. That’s the kind of trend we’re look at in this thread. (6/25)

When Facebook bid 3,900 cr, TV (subcontinent & global) sold for collective Rs. 12,500 cr (the 25% I mentioned). Remember -- OTT was still only entering our living rooms, pandemic was two-and-half years away. Media rights was basically about two simple parts – TV & digital. (7/25)

What have we seen post 2020? Netflix, Prime, Disney+, SonyLiv have more or less displaced DTH in urban & semi-urban India. Yes, TV still rules. But percentages have shifted heavily. And going forward, digital will flex muscles all the more. Expect that 25% to grow to 50%. (8/25)

In that lies a completely new world we’re entering. More you look at digital broadcast grow, the more you’re looking at consumption of live sport moving from just fan-following to fan-engagement. It will further underline the volume of ‘digital growth’ India is looking at. (9/25)

If IPL rights sell at Rs 36,000 cr (only for purpose of easy math), digital alone could touch Rs 15,000cr mark. Why? a) speed at which we’re clinging/adapting to global tech changes, b) shift in viewing preferences from fixed (TV at home) to movable (mobile/iPads)… (10/25)

… c) rolling out of 5G spectrum, d) data getting cheaper & internet easily accessible, e) the clarion call to work towards ‘Digital India’ – padhega-India tabhi badhega-India (education alone will lead to a better future) philosophy.
All of this will add to the impact. (11/25)

So, expect a new element to get added to the trend-space -- the fast-rising concept of ‘Addressable TV’, a concept that’s uniquely digital (can work in linear only when broadcaster is selling bouquet of channels instead of one) and is based on the idea of ‘customization’. (12/25)

Imagine YouTube. The advert you see before or during streaming of a video is not necessarily same as what I see. Before you stream a song on YouTube, you may see a Byju’s ad, probably because you or your nephew has logged in as a teenager, & data shows he is a student. (13/25)

Whereas I log in as an adult & will likely see advert of a pair of specs or hair-dye, given the data that reflects in my case. Just expand on this example. Customized viewing is future and the more you think about it, the more endless the future of broadcast appears. (14/25)

‘Addressable TV’ is already a concept in western markets and in India too, highly tech-advanced broadcasters are actively working with it. You’re a cricket-geek? Your OTT feed will give you options of watching shows on IPL’s best batting strike-rates/bowler averages. (15/25)

Think further – You’re looking to buy a TV online or buy dinner on Swiggy during a game, your app will share options, discounts. Sport you’re watching will be a by-product of the OTT subscription you bought. And that OTT doesn’t just want your money. It wants to engage. (16/25)

You’ll simultaneously be buying products, ordering food, enabling your search-engine to know you better, getting suggestions on what movies to watch, and more. The next broadcaster could, in fact, tell you – watch your cricket for free. Just stay with me, my friend. : ) (17/25)

E-retail, e-education, e-finance – they’re all seeking engagement. Your new broadcaster needn’t necessarily be a single-player – like Star or Sony – in future. Just as example: Telecom (Airtel), e-retail (Amazon), TV (Sony), OTT (SonyLive) could buy the rights together. (18/25)

In competition could be Jio, a platform that has a TV network, fast-developing OTT space, is leading telecom player, is advancing in e-retail & more. These are merely examples, to share how your new cricket broadcaster’s play may not just remain restricted to sport alone. (19/25)

Someone asked me a question the other day: What category should Smart TV come under as we discuss linear broadcast vs digital? Does it fall under category of TV, because it’s fixed, not movable, or Digital category, because you need internet to make Smart TV work. (20/25)

There’s a reason why an answer to this is important. The prevailing notion is that anything ‘fixed’ must come under TV, and anything ‘movable’ must come under digital has for long made us ignore the bigger picture: Anything engaging with us must be digital. (21/25)

An industry-veteran says he won’t be surprised if in five years from now, your OTT platform will consume you so heavily that DTH TV will move out of your living room altogether. In many cases it has already. I’ve been hooked on to the Firestick for almost five years now. (22/25)

Technology is changing with each passing day. Bose sells sunglasses for around Rs 20k which allows you to listen to cricket commentary while riding a bike or driving a car. What’s the future of virtual reality? I can be in any city but buy a ticket & watch a game from... (23/25)

... the Club House End at the Eden Gardens, Kolkata. The seat I book will have a camera placed on it and it’ll show me the game from that seat’s view. I could be watching that game sitting in my Mumbai apartment. The digital experience will be fascinating and scary. (24/25)

All of this is playing on BCCI’s mind as it looks to bring out the tender. To ensure it gets the best possible price from a competitive market, the board has appointed a global consultant as advisor. Can it derive top-dollar? The answer, my friend, is blowin in the wind. (Ends)