Reminder: Watch out for the whimper, not the bang.
"Historically, civilizational collapses are boring." Most apocalypses start as Boring Apocalypses, where decaying governmental capability & social dynamism lower our ability to stop risks & threats from turning into catastrophe.
"Historically, civilizational collapses are boring." Most apocalypses start as Boring Apocalypses, where decaying governmental capability & social dynamism lower our ability to stop risks & threats from turning into catastrophe.
I tweet about this paper occasionally because we dodged true catastrophe with COVID thanks to government and industry partnerships, as well as luck that the virus isn't worse.
But it was a near-run thing, and we aren't trying hard to fix what went wrong. researchgate.net/publication/32…
But it was a near-run thing, and we aren't trying hard to fix what went wrong. researchgate.net/publication/32…
This time, fast adaption with government support saved us, for example:
💉Vaccines developed in record times!
🚗Car companies 80,000 ventilators in three months!
💻Quick moves to remote work!
But we were also failed by many institutions. Continued decay of those is a real threat.
💉Vaccines developed in record times!
🚗Car companies 80,000 ventilators in three months!
💻Quick moves to remote work!
But we were also failed by many institutions. Continued decay of those is a real threat.
Complex systems fail for complex reasons, and only adaption and learning by institutions & industry, as well as individual "actions on the sharp end" can keep us safe. We need to examine the failures, but also keep our ability for dynamic action. Paper: researchgate.net/publication/22…
A bit more on complex systems…
https://twitter.com/emollick/status/1416455468596310018
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