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Jan 19 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
Its like a Buzzfeed quiz, but with real science: two papers show the movies and books you like can be used to accurately predict Big 5 personality traits. Take a look at the lists! (& some examples in the thread)
Movie paper: psyarxiv.com/wsdu8/download…
Books: arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/pape…
Some examples:
🎥Wes Anderson movies predict high openness to experience
🎥Shrek Forever After predicts low openness to experience
🎥Corpse Bride predicts high neuroticism
🎥Studio Ghibli predicts introversion
📕Manga & Drizzt novels also predict introversion
In case you aren’t familiar with the Big Five (or OCEAN test), it is the current gold standard for personality testing, assessing you on extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, negative emotionality and openness to experience. You can take it here: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/personality-qu…
The Big Five is a robust measure of personality with long-term implications. For example, it influences academic & job performance, as well as mental health.
On the other hand, popular personality tests like Enneagram (inverse.com/mind-body/enne…) & Myers-Briggs (psychologytoday.com/us/blog/give-a… ) aren’t valid & personality does not fall into neat types. But these tests seem right because they give us vague descriptions that can apply to anyone.
So, since conscientiousness is a reasonably good predictor of academic, work, and startup success, maybe you should consider hiring people who like National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation or Steel Magnolias. Or else who read mystery novels or books on theology.

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More from @emollick

Ethan Mollick Profile picture
Jan 19
Reminder: Watch out for the whimper, not the bang.

"Historically, civilizational collapses are boring." Most apocalypses start as Boring Apocalypses, where decaying governmental capability & social dynamism lower our ability to stop risks & threats from turning into catastrophe. Image
I tweet about this paper occasionally because we dodged true catastrophe with COVID thanks to government and industry partnerships, as well as luck that the virus isn't worse.

But it was a near-run thing, and we aren't trying hard to fix what went wrong. researchgate.net/publication/32… Image
This time, fast adaption with government support saved us, for example:
💉Vaccines developed in record times!
🚗Car companies 80,000 ventilators in three months!
💻Quick moves to remote work!
But we were also failed by many institutions. Continued decay of those is a real threat.
Read 5 tweets
Ethan Mollick Profile picture
Jan 17
Showing the "right" emotions to other people is a cause of work stress, so I am sorry to tell you , but you should know that dogs, horses, and goats have all been proven to be able to read your facial expressions.

And they prefer it when you look happy. 🐶🐐🐴😬
Here are the papers. And one of the best illustrations of methods (the dog needs a lab coat to really complete the scene).

Dogs: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Horses: royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.109…
Goats: royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.109…
Read 6 tweets
Ethan Mollick Profile picture
Jan 12
A useful strategic framework for thinking about startups comes from the work of military strategist John Boyd. His OODA "loop" was developed to explain why some pilots won in air combat, but works as a profound mediation about dealing with uncertainty & using pacing to win 1/5
The basic idea is that, in combat, pilots go through repeated cycles of:
👁️Observation, gathering data
🧠Orientation, analysis of data, drawing on background & mental state
↔️Decision, choice of action to take
🎆Action, making a decision happen
Whoever does the loops faster, wins
Boyd argued that the loop applies to companies, too. If you can "get inside the OODA loop" of your competitor, you have the advantage. By the time they even notice a market is there, you have identified an opportunity, gathered data, tried an approach, and learned from mistakes.
Read 8 tweets
Ethan Mollick Profile picture
Dec 28, 2021
My favorite paper for reflecting on before the New Year asks the key question: how can we be happier?

The world's top happiness scholars ranked the best strategies for individual & societal happiness, here are results listed by feasibility & effectiveness link.springer.com/article/10.100…
Effective individual happiness strategies:
👨‍👩‍👧‍👦Invest in family & friends
💃🏻Join a club
🙏Practice religion, if applicable
🤹‍♂️Be mentally & physically active
🌲Experience nature
🛌Sleep

Low effectiveness:
🧹Declutter
👨‍💻Self-employment
🍃Become vegan
🖥Eliminate screens
🏡Own a home
A related thread on money and happiness 👇 (one worthwhile caveat is that, while more money always seems to increase happiness, the happiness provided by each additional dollar is less as people get wealthier)
Read 4 tweets
Ethan Mollick Profile picture
Dec 20, 2021
On the 20th anniversary of the Lord of the Rings movies, a thread on science & Middle Earth. LOTR has been the subject of academic papers, as well as some great analyses by scientists from their disciplines. Here are some particularly great examples... 1/n theatlantic.com/health/archive…
Lets start with vulcanology: six-part tour of the geology of Lonely Mountain that explains why there is so much gold in the old volcano, among many other things. 2/n
pascals-puppy.blogspot.com/2013/12/unnatu…
While Tolkien’s volcanos hold promise, his mountain ranges were messed up. Geologist & science fiction author @katsudonburi explains the issues with Tolkien’s mountain ranges (written before plate tectonics was a known thing) 3/n tor.com/2017/08/01/tol…
Read 6 tweets
Ethan Mollick Profile picture
Dec 8, 2021
Expert critics are dead inside. People become experts in things they love, but by doing so, they lose their sense of joy: "Across seven studies... we found consistent evidence that expertise leads to emotional numbness"

Refocusing on your emotional reactions brings the joy back! Image
Basically this.
Here's the paper: academic.oup.com/jcr/article/48…. And anyone who wants to nitpick the data and methods should obviously instead refocus on the emotional highs that reading academic papers originally gave them 😜 Image
Read 4 tweets

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