Lots of excitement last night, but in the cold light of a wet Manchester morning I'm still a little sceptical that the confidence vote in Johnson will arrive immediately. Feels like we've been here before, with Theresa May, in autumn 2018
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1483460764560207878
Five reasons for scepticism:
1. Main contenders for the job don't seem to want a contest right now (and will presumably have some sway over many of their followers)
2. Delay always easier than decision and ST reason to wait is available - "lets wait for Sue Gray report"
1. Main contenders for the job don't seem to want a contest right now (and will presumably have some sway over many of their followers)
2. Delay always easier than decision and ST reason to wait is available - "lets wait for Sue Gray report"
3. There is medium term reason to delay too - better for new leader to have April's energy price rises and May's potentially bad local election results out of the way before taking office
4. This is more impressionistic but...like in autumn 2018 the angriest MPs seem to be making the most noise, but without much evidence they have broad support (and some evidence that they have annoyed colleagues). Party seemed v divided rather than resolved on removing Boris.
5. If the vote comes now there's no guarantee of winning it - May survived in Dec 18. Johnson cld prevail via mix of loyalty, dithering and factional conflict. That wld mean no new vote for a year (tho he could still resign). Cooler heads will be aware they get one shot at this.
Biggest arg the other way is that emotions are running high and in such situations events can escalate things v rapidly - witness the very strong negative reaction to Johnson's interview with Beth Rigby. Another big scandal/slip-up in this environment could tip balance.
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