Some see it as picking pennies in front of a bulldozer (buying beaten down growth stocks now, with so much Macro uncertainty ahead).
Some see it as planting the seeds now for good results later (buying into quality/growth Cos, buying w.r.t intrinsic value, with a 3-5 yr view).
If you know yourself well (i.e competence, goals, time horizon, risk tolerance, conviction, accountability, ability to tune out noise, clear head & strong stomach), next few months will be pretty interesting time for individual stock picking in your areas of interest/competence.
All that time spent online arguing about the Macro or defending your strategy & picks is better spent if you shut out the noise and dive into the actual companies/sectors (that you would want to buy for the long-term, if the Market continues to you opportunities).
If you can identify Companies with
-Secular growth opportunities
-Strong Competitive positioning in big end markets
-Strong Management (Competent, honest & transparent, LT minded with skin in the game)
-Preferably diversified Customer base with recurring & durable revenue (or high mind/wallet share)
-Core products strengthening, along with new offerings pickup
-Improving Margins and path to profitability and cash generation (if not already)
-No Financial risk (w.r.t Liquidity, solvency, need for debt offering)
-Reasonable dilution even if any (compared to the business value being created).
-Consider valuation more contextually
-Buy slowly as you gain more conviction and see the execution, or buy bigger (when you already have conviction, and Market offers big discount to your range of intrinsic value)
-Chances are high that we'll see good results over the medium to long-term.
/END
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Ready for some chart crimes? I'm going to show 10 charts & come to the conclusions that prove my point. Haha.. just kidding, but I do want to share some interesting stuff.
Metric mainly being used is Gross Profit/EV Yield (LTM). Used @KoyfinCharts for these.
Yes I'm aware that there's a mile wide gap between Gross Profit and FCF, but a good GM margin along with huge yrly growth affords the company to spend on OPEX (hopefully spending in the right areas) while building a durable company & getting towards sustainable FCF generation.
Although I have used EV/GP/NTM growth before, I haven't used the inverted metric (LTM) to see what yield we're getting on the GP (unlike the FCF yield used on mature companies).
Over the next few weeks, the high Macro uncertainty along with Q4 results (surprises & over-reactions) is sure to create some very interesting opportunities to initiate or slowly increase positions in some of these growth sectors if you understand them well.
✔️Time to put the head down
✔️Tune out the random online opinions (comparisons to 2000-02, how much pain there is ahead....)
✔️Focus on each business based on it's own merit
✔️Do the things that are in the best long term interest of your Portfolio.
That is if we can
✔️Tune out the noise while still giving enough importance to the major Macro factors
✔️have good understanding and high conviction in those growth companies
I had a lot of fun writing this thread few months ago.
Understandably many folks are not excited about growth Cos now (especially unprofitable ones, even if high quality) but many multi-baggers are born during tough times (if you find/hold high quality)