On days like this morning, Markets (& Media) want us to be the deer in the headlights. Scared and frozen.
I prefer to mimic Ted Williams, stepping up & hitting my sweet spots (ignoring the noise, opportunistically adding to some of my favs).
Added to
$ETSY at $138
$SE at $136
Market is acting as if even good/established E-Commerce Cos are toast. I'll take the opposite bet for the long-term please.
$ETSY At ~30 times EBITDA, I'll take my chances with this one.
$SE At ~76B Mkt cap for this juggernaut, I'll take few more plz.
Few more Cos I came this🤏close to adding (a couple of them) before the Market came to its senses😕. Maybe on another crazy day.
$RBLX at $61
$ROKU at $142
$TWLO at $178
$TDOC at $68
At these prices, Mkt was acting as if below is the thesis for these Cos.
$RBLX : Undifferentiated Platform with no growth/engagement in the next few yrs, no advertising prospects either.
$ROKU : Consumers/Content/Advertisers are all going back to the Cable/Analog world.
$TWLO : We don't need all these Customer communication/engagement channels in a Digital economy.
$TDOC : Patients are clamoring to be back in Doctor waiting rooms, Chronic care can be as effectively managed w/o online support.
Two more that looked tempting after the above ones are
$SQ at $104
$SHOP at $790 (had to rub my eyes twice if I was seeing the price right).
My usual playbook
-No Leverage
-Long only
-Mostly sticking to 5/6 sectors and my fav cos within.
-Semi concentrated with heavier weighting towards Top 10 based on combination of interest, conviction & R/R profile (trying to get better at the latter).
-Not afraid to add on the way down as long as I see value in current price to offer decent long-term IRR
-Not trying to look smart in the short term
-Never the one to move large amount of Portfolio in/out of Markets based on price trends. So slowly adding to my fav Cos on crazy days is one the the best available options.
-Very long holding period if the business is performing
-Experienced every bear market up close since '08.
-Have lot of patience, can tolerate a lot of short term pain.😀
As always, this is just a public journal to share my thoughts (on certain crazy Market days).
My situation could be totally different to yours. So never take this as advice or recs.
Always have your own plan/strategy for good & bad times.
Wishing you the best in navigating these crazy times.👍
/END
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Some see it as picking pennies in front of a bulldozer (buying beaten down growth stocks now, with so much Macro uncertainty ahead).
Some see it as planting the seeds now for good results later (buying into quality/growth Cos, buying w.r.t intrinsic value, with a 3-5 yr view).
If you know yourself well (i.e competence, goals, time horizon, risk tolerance, conviction, accountability, ability to tune out noise, clear head & strong stomach), next few months will be pretty interesting time for individual stock picking in your areas of interest/competence.
All that time spent online arguing about the Macro or defending your strategy & picks is better spent if you shut out the noise and dive into the actual companies/sectors (that you would want to buy for the long-term, if the Market continues to you opportunities).
Ready for some chart crimes? I'm going to show 10 charts & come to the conclusions that prove my point. Haha.. just kidding, but I do want to share some interesting stuff.
Metric mainly being used is Gross Profit/EV Yield (LTM). Used @KoyfinCharts for these.
Yes I'm aware that there's a mile wide gap between Gross Profit and FCF, but a good GM margin along with huge yrly growth affords the company to spend on OPEX (hopefully spending in the right areas) while building a durable company & getting towards sustainable FCF generation.
Although I have used EV/GP/NTM growth before, I haven't used the inverted metric (LTM) to see what yield we're getting on the GP (unlike the FCF yield used on mature companies).
Over the next few weeks, the high Macro uncertainty along with Q4 results (surprises & over-reactions) is sure to create some very interesting opportunities to initiate or slowly increase positions in some of these growth sectors if you understand them well.
✔️Time to put the head down
✔️Tune out the random online opinions (comparisons to 2000-02, how much pain there is ahead....)
✔️Focus on each business based on it's own merit
✔️Do the things that are in the best long term interest of your Portfolio.
That is if we can
✔️Tune out the noise while still giving enough importance to the major Macro factors
✔️have good understanding and high conviction in those growth companies
I had a lot of fun writing this thread few months ago.
Understandably many folks are not excited about growth Cos now (especially unprofitable ones, even if high quality) but many multi-baggers are born during tough times (if you find/hold high quality)