Our MBI seeks for convergence on multiple indicators and creates a more friendly way to understand where we are in the cycle. Use it to assess your own risk on your positions.
Facts (Possible Local Bottom):
- Current levels are similar to last 29K major bounce , but IF we close and test below the 30k resistance we need to focus on the next possible bottom.
- The bullish divergence initiated a pump but was rejected.
Facts (Possible Macro Bottom):
- We are entering the Dark Red Zone Fib area.
- We have only been there 3 times in $BTC history.
- Once we enter we always hit the dark red zone bottom (30K now)
- Bounce initiates when we TS gets red or bloody red (good level to DCA) and curves up.
Cryptos are very correlate to Nasdaq in this crashes, but movements are much violent. For perpsective Nasdaq is just entering orange area, while $BTC is already on the dark red one.
This happen both ways, so when we recover, the upside would be much higher.
Complementing MBI, check our Trend System (TS) update, this movements are not a surprise to us, as we have known for a while that we are on a midterm downtrend.
PS: indicators available on my Patreon. You don't have to use them, but try using a SYSTEM.
Conclusion: 1) Strategy STILL the same, we wait for TS reversal before any big investment, NO RUSH, now more important than ever, as going lower chances are increasing. If $BTC goes to 100k you won't miss it if you use a trend approach.
and you will sleep well meanwhile :)
2) TP (trading psychology) at red level, could indicate that a macro bottom is close, which i will use to continue my DCA, specially if anoter bullish divergence appears.
Could we bounce right now and go to an ATH? OF COURSE! Anything can happen (specially if stocks rally up), these are only PROBABILITIES, so make your own interpretations and trade accordingly to your risk profile.
Don't loose money in volatility investing on the short term (4 hour timeframe or less) if you are not an experienced trader.
Be patient, let the whales do their thing, wait for trend reversal or major signs of recovery.
IF we go up and close above the 39K resistance, then we return to consider a possible Local Bottom scenario instead of a Macro Bottom.
The key here is to react, not just buying blindly.
No major news today, we are still in the middle of the new 39.5k resistance and the 29.5k support. Expect high volatility on the upcoming days.
$BTC entered the oversold area on the daily so...
... a bounce or sideways movements is highly probable on the upcoming days. I would like to see an orange dot on the momentum vave or a bullish divergence on our DIV labels indicator to increase the chances for a stronger bounce.
IF we bounce, the most important resistance will be the 39.5k level. That is a good level to take profits if you bought the dip in the current levels.
We all know that the stock market will eventually recover. And the crypto market will too.
Nasdaq broke some key supports on friday, after that the crypto market entered derisk mode (people selling to preserve their capital, anticipating more downside)
The only question is how long it will take, and what will be the bottom.
NO ONE knows those answers, we could return to ATH on monday or in a few months.
I will be actively waiting, monitoring the market without feeling the rush to invest, doing some DCA in major support levels. Searching for macro bottom signals on our MBI, and most importantly waiting for our Trend System (TS) to flip bullish again.
Monthly trend still clearly bullish (BUY 2 out of 4 indicators) while Daily is bearish.
Bullish deacceleration signals appeared since November, soon after the Daily trend turned bearish.
Ok...time to read the thread...
Facts:
- We are above the Supertrend TR support (30K)
- We are testing the top of the ema ribbon (37K) right now.
- We have NEVER went under the emma ribbon support (currently at 22K).
Facts:
- 2 Bearish divergences appeard on November, since then downwards pressure started. (divergences are extremely powerful on the monthly)
- Trend Ride Fast is turning bearish, suggesting downwards pressure (pending to confirm)
Plan still the same, waiting for Trend reversal , no urge to buy the dip. Let the whales play and define the way while we wait patiently.
Closed all my alts that bought near support with tight Stop loss.
- Supertrend TR: Bearish
- Trend Ride- Fast: Bearish
- ADX and DI TR: Bearish
- Momentum Wave: Bearish
- Mood: Waiting for trend reversal.
- Support: 39.5k (wait for daily close to see if it turns into resistance)
- Resistance: 43.2 - 46.6K #BTC#Bitcoin
Can we bounce from here? Sure, will most probably depend on what the Nasdaq and S&P does.
This is a macro movement, not a coincidence that S&P broke macro support and so did $BTC.
Strategy DOES NOT change, only small DCA, waiting for trend reversal before any large investment.
I sound like a broken record now probably, but it is for a reason, no need to risk my capital trying to buy every single dip. If $BTC goes to 100k we won't miss it.
Also Max Bottom Indicator (MBI) local bottom scenario still on play, same level of resistance (39.5K) than Trend System (TS). Love when that confluence happens.