"Hi Alex, I have 2 doses of vaccine & JUST recovered from COVID. I'm eligible for a 3rd dose. When should I get it?"
Great Q. You assuredly had Omicron, so while you're eligible to get your booster 'right away', I'd personally wait at least 6-8 weeks. Why?
Short 🧵 👇 (1/n)
First, getting a 3rd dose even AFTER you've recovered from Omicron makes sense. You're further bolstering your immune response from whatever the 'next' variant will be. *Big sigh.*
Better for your immune system to be ready for whatever this pandemic throws at it next. (2/n)
Second, DON'T get a booster dose when you're symptomatic.
You're putting persons at risk of exposure to Omicron, and your immune response to vaccine WON'T be as good as when you've fully recovered and your immune system has had a chance to calm down. (3/n)
Spacing out vaccine doses, as Canada has done, has been shown to lead to MORE robust & long-lasting immune responses vs giving doses over shorter periods of time (i.e. <4 weeks).
Immunologically, it makes sense to wait instead of 'rushing' for that 3rd dose. (4/n)
For me personally, I would say waiting ~6-8 weeks post-recovery to get boosted makes sense.
Omicron will remain the dominant variant for months, so your risk of reinfection now that you've recovered is probably very low between your 2 doses and protection after recovery. (5/n)
Spacing that booster out will likely lead to better & longer-lasting protection going forward, given that your immediate risk from Omicron is now low.
Caveat: I'm just a dumb ID doctor. But thankfully, this kind of thinking is endorsed by super smart immunology types, too. (6/7)
On January 18, @PremierScottMoe posted a graphic comparing "real-time" QC / ON / MB hospitalizations / ICU admissions vs. SK.
Problem: SK is ~3 weeks behind those provinces w/ our Omicron surge.
We MUST be careful interpreting this data. We're NOT OK, Saskatchewan.
🧵👇 (1/n)
A more reasonable and appropriate comparison would be to look at where MB/QC/ON were at ~3 weeks from Jan 18 to create a more fair "apples vs apples" graphic.
For those 3 provinces, that would take us to about Dec 28. Let's see what the data shows us. (2/n)
We have #QC data from Dec 28 & Jan 18 in the graphics below courtesy @sante_qc:
Dec 28: 804 in hospital (including ICU), 128 in ICU
Jan 18: 3425 in hospital (including ICU), 285 in ICU
- Measures implemented to SIGNIFICANTLY reduce social mixing, MAYBE we avoid disaster/triage in #SK hospitals.
- Do NOTHING, #SK hospitals crushed, triage ensues.
Get comfy - here we go.
(1/25)
Let's begin with history.
@SKGov was provided w/ models from WORLD-CLASS #SK modeler Dr. Nate Osgood in late August 2021 that predicted EXACTLY how #SK ICUs would be overwhelmed w/ Delta in Fall 2021.
Trends w/ Omicron & RAPID INCREASES in hospitalizations are now clear.
'Leading indicator' jurisdictions w/ advanced Omicron waves (e.g. Ontario, Quebec, NYC, UK) are ALL showing BIG increases in adult hospitalizations.
All are strained further by HCW shortages. Brief 🧵 (1/n)
Let's start with the UK. Hospitalizations are rising quickly, as evidenced by the graph below.
Yes, not as bad as January surge w/ Alpha - yet. But additional challenges including system & HCW burnout, significant staff absences due to COVID, etc. (2/n)
Excellent description of pressures that National Health Service (NHS) currently faces via @ChrisCEOHopson.
Hospitalization challenges now DIFFERENT w/ Omicron. It's a "sheer numbers" issue of persons needing ward/medicine beds, less ICU capacity. (3/n)
Let's begin with other provinces who are RIGHT in the storm of their Omicron surges. Quebec has delayed opening of 'everything' to Jan 17. Ontario has delayed opening till Jan 5 to try to distribute HEPA filters & N95s for staff (not students). (2/n)
A respected colleague in Toronto, @drmwarner, reasonably argues for a 1-2 week delay IF a delay will increase booster doses for school/daycare staff, improve vaccine uptake for ages 5-11, & solidify distribution of HEPA/N95s/RATs in schools. (3/n)
Modelling released by @SKGov predicts DRAMATIC rise in cases, hospitalizations, & ICU admits w/ #Omicron if no additional measures to reduce contacts (i.e. gathering & capacity limits).
Briefing today: NO measures to be implemented at present. Wait and see.
Here is ICU / non-ICU modelling data. Not great, as you can see. Also not being taken into account - scores of HCWs taken out of circulation as a result of widespread community transmission.
Who will look after all the patients? Many HCWs have already moved on.