Thread by @awong37

On January 18, @PremierScottMoe posted a graphic comparing "real-time" QC / ON / MB hospitalizations / ICU admissions vs. SK.

Problem: SK is ~3 weeks behind those provinces w/ our Omicron surge.

We MUST be careful interpreting this data. We're NOT OK, Saskatchewan.

🧵👇 (1/n)

A more reasonable and appropriate comparison would be to look at where MB/QC/ON were at ~3 weeks from Jan 18 to create a more fair "apples vs apples" graphic.

For those 3 provinces, that would take us to about Dec 28. Let's see what the data shows us. (2/n)

We have #QC data from Dec 28 & Jan 18 in the graphics below courtesy @sante_qc:

Dec 28: 804 in hospital (including ICU), 128 in ICU
Jan 18: 3425 in hospital (including ICU), 285 in ICU

(3/n)

We have #MB data from Dec 28 & Jan 18 courtesy of #MB's dashboard, linked below.

Dec 28: 231 in hospital (including ICU), 30 in ICU (total)
Jan 18: 644 in hospital (including ICU), 45 in ICU (total)

(4/n)

geoportal.gov.mb.ca/datasets/manit…

We have #ON data from Dec 28 & Jan 8 courtest of #ON's dashboard, linked below.

Dec 28: 491 in hospital (including ICU), 175 in ICU (active = testing positive)
Jan 18: 4183 in hospital (including ICU), 573 in ICU (active, testing positive)

(5/n)

covid-19.ontario.ca/data/hospitali…

So per capita hospital/ICU numbers for MB/QC/ON on Dec 28?

MB: 16.0/100,000 hospital, 2.2/100,000 ICU
QC: 9.3/100,000 hospital, 1.6/100,000 ICU
ON: 3.3/100,000 hospital, 1.2/100,000 ICU

SK Jan 18? 16.0/100,000 in hospital, 1.5/100,000 in ICU.

Apples vs apples. No spin. (6/n)

So, stating the obvious: if we compare #SK's Omicron wave with reasonably similar timepoints for ANY of MB/QC/ON Omicron waves, we're AT or WORSE than ALL OF THEM for hospitalizations per capita.

Here's a "new" (amateur, sorry) graphic that reflects this new comparison. (7/n)

ALL of MB/QC/ON put SIGNIFICANT public health measures in b/w X'mas & New Year's Eve to curb Omicron spread. Why?

Because they saw the models. They KNEW what would happen to hospitals & ICUs.

You don't need a Ph.D. in epidemiology to see what's going to happen here. (8/n)

So, put plainly, comparing #SK's curve in 'real-time' vs others, fine. Just make sure you explain clearly the caveats of your comparison.

When we compare #SK's Omicron reality vs other provinces at same time points, we're in BIG trouble. Like everyone else. (9/n)

Using this type of flawed 'comparison' to justify that #SK is fine and doesn't need to do anything, is ignorant at best. At worst, IMO, it's disingenuous and purposely deceitful.

No matter the explanation, it's either a competency issue or an integrity issue. Or both. (10/n)

This is my personal opinion, but I believe ALL #SK citizens deserve to be treated respectfully by elected officials who should exemplify BOTH competence & integrity.

This means being TRANSPARENT with data.

Sorry, Saskatchewan: we're NOT OK.

@SKGov, help us, please.

(end)