'The Russian military has announced that it will conduct a naval artillery exercise 240km off the southwest coast of Cork in two weeks as fears grow about the risk of conflict in Ukraine.' thetimes.co.uk/article/571428…
'The Irish Defence Forces and the Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) were informed last night of the planned exercise, which will be within Ireland’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), on February 3.'
'The Department of Foreign Affairs was also told through official channels of a planned “surface gun exercise”.

The number of warships that will take part is not known but military experts said it was likely to involve a task group of three to five warships.'
“Ireland is not a Nato member, so Russia is trying to exercise its powers over countries that are not members of the alliance. Ireland has also been advertising recently the paucity of its naval defence forces. In Russian thinking, this makes Ireland an inviting target.”

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More from @Andy_Scollick

Jan 22
Russian naval missile firing 'test' 240km off Ireland's southwest coast on 3 February

Should we be concerned? 🧵 thetimes.co.uk/article/571428…
First, it is important not to be alarmist.

However, given the dire strategic situation regarding the threat of large-scale Russian offensive actions against Ukraine, and the timing, this is an alarming development.
Clearly, this is part of Russia's ratcheting up of tensions in the overall context of its "demands" that the US and NATO back off not only from Ukraine, but also from eastern Europe in general.
Read 20 tweets
Jan 21
Zelenskyy's statement, unfortunately, is not as outlandish as some may think. Milint have warned since Sept 2015 that Russian 20th Combined Arms Army then 1st Guards Tank Army have been training for shock assault & urban warfare under the General Staff codename "Kharkiv Scenario"
Read 6 tweets
Jan 18
Colleagues have been warning about Russian "self-shelling" tactics by GRU fire teams for years.. see below
GFC coined the term "self-shelling" in May 2015
Read 5 tweets
Dec 26, 2021
Those looking for hope in the 10,000 Russian troops "returning to bases" following combat training exercises news (Interfax, Reuters) need to understand a few things: First, this only applies to Southern Military District. Troop numbers in Western MD remain stable or are.. 1/
.. increasing (according to some reports). Second, this was a normal, routine winter training exercise period. It also involves rotation of units: other troops will rotate to training areas in coming days and weeks. Third, not all unit equipment is being returned to base. 2/
Other equipment is being transited on a north-south axis between Southern and Western MDs. Fourth, the whole point of such exercises is to maintain and raise combat readiness levels. In effect, the 10,000 troops are returning to base in a better prepared state of readiness. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Nov 20, 2021
Completely unconnected with events unfolding in eastern Europe. Of course! you say. Except it's not. Because if the unthinkable happens, then @DFCavalryCorps could be engaging with Russian VDV, marines and GRU spetsnaz on Irish soil as early as summer 2022. A scenario: 1/🧵
How so? you ask. Russia appears intent on invading Ukraine. Ukraine will fight, Russia can't afford to lose, war will spread, NATO forces are likely to be drawn in if combat crosses Ukraine's borders into NATO countries. But that's nowhere near Ireland! you say. However. 2/
A conventional war between Russia and Allied (Ukraine, US, EU, NATO) forces on the eastern flank will automatically bring into play the western Atlantic flank of Europe: Ireland's controlled air, sea and land territory is one-fifth of that flank. It will be contested space. 3/
Read 19 tweets
Nov 19, 2021
Vice President of the Russian International Affairs Council (Putin's Moscow think tank), Lieutenant-General (Reserves) Evgeny Buzhinsky, said how "Ukrainian troops will be destroyed" No tank armies, the Aerospace Forces will do everything. 1/ mk.ru/politics/2021/…
Buzhinsky said the war against Russia "is already underway." Yes, there is no "hot" war yet, but there is an informational, economic, trade and sanctions war going on. The number of cyberattacks on Russian systems is in the thousands. 2/
Speaking about the Russian military groupings on Russia's western borders, Buzhinsky expressed confidence that a sufficient grouping of forces has been created. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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