Russian naval missile firing 'test' 240km off Ireland's southwest coast on 3 February
Should we be concerned? 🧵 thetimes.co.uk/article/571428…
Should we be concerned? 🧵 thetimes.co.uk/article/571428…
First, it is important not to be alarmist.
However, given the dire strategic situation regarding the threat of large-scale Russian offensive actions against Ukraine, and the timing, this is an alarming development.
However, given the dire strategic situation regarding the threat of large-scale Russian offensive actions against Ukraine, and the timing, this is an alarming development.
Clearly, this is part of Russia's ratcheting up of tensions in the overall context of its "demands" that the US and NATO back off not only from Ukraine, but also from eastern Europe in general.
The Russian Navy is conducting live fire exercises in the Pacific, Mediterranean, North Sea and - as we now know - North-East Atlantic off the coast of Ireland.
This exercise offshore of West Cork is taking full advantage of Ireland's non-aligned status and very weak defences. We are not a NATO member, so we are an obvious choice.
Ireland has no armed maritime patrol aircraft. No doubt the Air Corps' two Casa CN 235 aircraft will patrol, but be restricted by the military exclsuion zone around the Russian Navy task force.
This task force is expected to comprise 4 or 5 naval surface vessels. There is also the possibility of Russian submarine activity and even missile launches from beneath the surface.
Reports in the media indicate the intention to also involve Russian Air Force aircraft: possibly Tu-142 maritime patrol and anti-submarine warfare (ASW) and maybe Tu-95 or even Tu-160 air-launched cruise missile platforms.
The danger comes from the timing: the first week in February will coincide with the possible end of the diplomatic path to averting further war in Europe. It could coincide with the onset of Russian offensive actions against Ukraine.
Therefore, it is theoretically possible that the Russian Navy task force off SW Ireland could be involved in direct attacks on targets in Ukraine. (Emphasis on "could".)
This depends on the type and variant of missiles onboard ships and any submarines. Most missiles don't have the range. But if the new larger, heavier Kalibr-M cruise missiles are deployed, they can reach anywhere in Ukraine.
The maximum range of the Kalibr-M is believed to be about 4,500km. The task force 'test' will take place approximately 2,600km from western Ukraine and 3,700km from eastern Ukraine.
It seems highly unlikely that Russia would choose to fly cruise missiles on trajectories across Ireland and NATO members UK, Netherlands, Germany and Poland. Yet six months ago the prospect of large-scale Russian war against Ukraine seemed unlikely.
There is also a possibility that the Russian Navy task force might test the new Tsirkon hypersonic cruise missile, which can be used for both anti-shipping and land-attack.
The missile 'test' will be closely monitored by UK Armed Forces, as it poses a potential threat to targets in England. Atlantic waters "west of Ireland" are prospective launch areas for attacks on Royal Navy bases in Plymouth (Devonport) and Portsmouth, among other targets.
Will Ireland deploy Naval Service vessels to the area? Even if they do, they can only monitor the task force from a distance. Irish naval vessels have no anti-missile or ASW capabilities. The best Ireland can hope for is defensive cover from the Royal Air Force and Royal Navy.
This is not some routine Russian Navy exercise. It may amount to 'messaging' or 'sabre rattling'. But it could be part of Russia's multi-domain opeations offensive package against Ukraine.
If cruise missiles were launched from within Ireland's Exclsuive Economic Zone (EEZ), which extends to 370km offshore, at targets in Ukraine or elsewhere in Europe it would activate Ireland's offshore as part of North Atlantic theatre in a 'hot' war.
So, should we in Ireland be concerned?
Yes. Russia is clearly demonstrating that Ireland's "neutrality" is a myth, not to be respected in peacetime let alone wartime.
Yes. Russia is clearly demonstrating that Ireland's "neutrality" is a myth, not to be respected in peacetime let alone wartime.
Ireland has long been flagged by Russian General Staff planners and decision makers as a key strategic vulnerability - therefore an opportunity - in Europe's Atlantic flank.
This Russian Navy missile 'test' is a test of Ireland's metal as much as it is a test of NATO's.
End.
This Russian Navy missile 'test' is a test of Ireland's metal as much as it is a test of NATO's.
End.
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