Wanna know how different BA.2 can be? look BA.3
(Yes, there is a 3rd one).
ill show here that if we apply the logic some use to explain BA.2, BA.3 should also be successful, and it’s not.
(TL;DR Genetics are more complexed than what we would like to think.)
1/8
(Yes, there is a 3rd one).
ill show here that if we apply the logic some use to explain BA.2, BA.3 should also be successful, and it’s not.
(TL;DR Genetics are more complexed than what we would like to think.)
1/8
In terms of GISAID # seq’s :
BA.1/2/3 has 528,773, 10,873 & 86 (respectively).
BA.3 did manage to transmit in the population. It was found in 9 countries in 3 continents. In Poland and SA it seems to transmit over time.
But in comparison to the other two BA’s… it sucks.
2/8
BA.1/2/3 has 528,773, 10,873 & 86 (respectively).
BA.3 did manage to transmit in the population. It was found in 9 countries in 3 continents. In Poland and SA it seems to transmit over time.
But in comparison to the other two BA’s… it sucks.
2/8
Those are the positions in which BA.3 mutated ,only NS and del’s(S gene marked in the middle).
Blue – shared with BA.2
Red – shared with BA.1
Grey – unique.
(Recombination shout’s out of course.)
3/8
Blue – shared with BA.2
Red – shared with BA.1
Grey – unique.
(Recombination shout’s out of course.)
3/8
Here are the 3 variants mutations in the RBD.
BA.3 has 15 NS in RBD (like BA.1) and 9 in the RBM (more than BA.2).
Could it be that there is more to the pic than RBD?
and also - If immune evasion is the main factor for the Rt of O as some say – why did BA.3 lag behind ?
4/8
BA.3 has 15 NS in RBD (like BA.1) and 9 in the RBM (more than BA.2).
Could it be that there is more to the pic than RBD?
and also - If immune evasion is the main factor for the Rt of O as some say – why did BA.3 lag behind ?
4/8
Here is the same distribution for the S1 (nonRBD).
5/8
5/8
And here is this distribution in the ORF1ab. The forgotten part of the genome that may holds the answer for a lot of the clinical differences between variants.
6/8
6/8
Now back to BA.2 - Many think BA.2 is just another form of BA.1 as they share many mutations. But BA.3 share more with BA.1 (more pronounced in the S1 and specifically in the RBD). That didn’t helped BA.3.
And while BA.3 has only 9 Non BA.1 NS, BA.2 has 20 (!).
7/8
And while BA.3 has only 9 Non BA.1 NS, BA.2 has 20 (!).
7/8
So- There is more to genetics than simple arithmetic calculation of mutations.
Until more clinical data gathered for BA.2, let’s refer to it as a different variant outcompeting BA.1.
8/8
Until more clinical data gathered for BA.2, let’s refer to it as a different variant outcompeting BA.1.
8/8
Green of course - shared by all 3
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