So, we're back - as predicted in mid Dec (!) - in two epidemics - a growing one in children (& flat in their parents' generation) and declining in everyone else.
Unvaxxed children in schools have highest and fastest growing rates - ie 5-9 yr olds. Cases >2x higher than Dec. 1/5
And equally, while hospital admissions fall in adults, they are higher than ever and rising in children.
While most admissions are short and children recovering quickly, they are still sick enough to come to hospital.
We don't know about Omicron & PMS-TS, Long Covid etc 2/5
Most other high income countries are far ahead of us in vaccinating teens and 5-11 year olds.
We know the vaccines are safe and protect against severe illness. SAGE reported that recent teen Covid admissions to ICU were all unvaccinated. 3/5
We have failed to protect kids by not investing in cleaner air in schools - progress is glacial.
We have failed to protect kids by removing mask requirements.
We have failed to protect kids by not even allowing the option of 5-11 yr vaccine for most kids. 4/5
We have failed to protect their education - there is mass disruption as kids & teachers fall sick. There is so much uncertainty, it is hard to plan.
This was all predictable and yet here we are. We must reinstate masks (ideally FFP2), invest in clear air & encourage vax! 5/5
PS here is the article @adsquires & I wrote for @bmj_latest in December higlighting these issues.
I didn't get chance to do thread after Friday @IndependentSage briefing (viewable here: )
so here is a quick update.
TLDR: cases and admissions have likely peaked, but expect schools to prolong the wave... 1/10
Reported cases have peaked and in all nations.
While many things affect case reporting, positivity rates are also falling (good). ONS always lags by a week or two, but hopefully we will see sustained drops in a week or two.
BUT prevalence is still *extraordinarily* high. 2/10
Cases are now falling in all English regions - you can see a clear pre-Xmas change in London likely driven by people cancelling plans to avoid being sick at Xmas.
NE last to peak, but it has.
Again ONS is a bit lagged, but shows London has and other regions flattening 3/10
First they find that the largest *increase* in Covid admissions by age was in children, particularly under 12s and under 5s. This was both in admissions *for* and admissions *with* - about 60% were directly for Covid.
About half had no pre-existing health conditions. 2/4
They do a very preliminary comparison between Omicron and Delta (unvaccinated patients only) and find that while Omicron seems to be causing fewer hospitalisations in *adults*, the opposite is true in *children*.
Again this is preliminary but needs to be looked into further. 3/4
A virus isn't endemic just cos a govt minister says it is and just cos people want it to be.
The current pattern of waning vax, new immune evasive variants, and minimal public health response seem set to doom us to massive surges once or twice a year. 1\5
If that continues we'll keep picking off the vulnerable, keep stressing a weakening NHS, create more chronic illness & mass disruption through people off sick every time. Lower quality of life for all of us.
Uncertainty in being able to plan months ahead cos of variants 2\5
And when the next pandemic comes, do we just add that disease to our repertoire after a period of mass death?
What when diseases like malaria move north through climate change?
TLDR: not over yet. Good news is high booster coverage in over 50s & no rise in ICU. Bad news is high strain on hospitals, no plan for schools & worsening admissions & long covid for kids.
+ Indie Sage has some suggestions...
1/21
Firstly Omicron - now dominant in Scotland, Wales & England. Probably in NI but no recent data. N Ireland is about week behind other nations.
Omicron dominant in all English regions, London c. 1 week ahead.
Omicron's rise has been very rapid! 2/21
Omicron is v good at infecting vaxxed people - even being boosted only gives you about 40% protection after 10 weeks.
Booster gives *88%* protection against hospital admission - GET IT!
NB booster hosp protection for Delta was close to 100%, Omicron has made things worse. 3/21
TLDR: things are pretty bad and I'm sad & bewildered at lack of govt action and general levels of hopium. 1/18
First off cases... reported levels in England now more than twice as high as previous peak last January and more than three times higher than at start of December.
Positivity rates are also rising v steeply - testing is not keeping up with cases.
All regions rising fast, London highest and earliest. Do not take London small case drop too seriously - drop in pre xmas tests & positivity still rising. Plus xmas likely to boost again. 3/18