The Discourse would benefit a lot if readers knew what advice candidates are getting. Overwhelmingly, candidates are being advised to do the exact things The Discourse treats as fresh wisdom. Consultants have been giving candidates this advice for decades and they've followed it.
For years, I sat in on meetings every other week with Senate leadership and consultants, plus DSCC meetings. Do you think the consultants in those meetings were telling candidates to embrace BLM and run to the left? Of course not! The opposite. Senators and candidates listened.
If we want real answers to why Dems are underperforming, we are barking up the wrong tree. Moderates and Dem leaders control all of the money and the power. They have the campaign committees, the big IEs. They get their candidates in most big races and dictate their strategies.
Lest this get miscast, I don't think the answer is to always run left. I favor heterodoxy but it cuts both ways. E.g., mods shelter corporate elites, foster a Davos aesthetic and argue against anti-elitist messaging in an age of anti-elitism while declaring legal weed off-limits.
This is a plea for accountability, thoughtfulness and nuance. Start by looking at the people who have the money, power and decision-making ability. If they reflexively blame those who have a fraction of what they have, and who do not control the campaign machinery, be skeptical!
Should the left be held accountable, too? Of course! But what major decisions did they control and what do they control now? In 2020, the campaign machinery was controlled by mods. In 2021, Dems have followed the mod playbook, passing just ARP & BIF. Everything else is noise.
The downward spiral for Democrats is: Do you think the left is too Woke? Then come with me friend, and let me explain why we should be the party of Davos and the C-suite.
It’s a great question! To take one example, Claire McCaskill is on TV often, dispensing supposedly sage advice for Dems. Claire loved corporate jets even more than the average senator and got crushed in 2018 - while legal weed, which she did not support, passed comfortably in MO.
The Discourse relies on a weird closed circuit of people who are On Here, yet know that Twitter Is Not Real Life, but are insufficiently experienced to know than most campaign practitioners already know that, and execute campaigns accordingly - and have been for a long time.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Adam Jentleson 🎈

Adam Jentleson 🎈 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @AJentleson

Jan 20
A quick thread about why I agree with Ron here. Lost in the minute-by-minute hysteria is the fact that 48 senators voted to reform the legislative filibuster. Putting that vote on the record was necessary, and marked a historic development in the 200+ year-long fight for reform.
Is it disappointing to come up 2 votes short? Yes. But this is the closest reformers have come in at least a century and certainly in the modern era. More importantly, the trajectory is clear. Dems have crossed the rubicon & grasp the need for reform in a way they didn't before.
The big question is, will Dems have the votes before Republicans have a trifecta and do it themselves? Only time will tell. In the Senate, Dems need to improve their electoral performance given the daunting map, and deny Republicans a trifecta in the meantime. Tough, but doable.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 19
This is profoundly disingenuous. From the founding until the 20th century, every vote on regular bills in the Senate was majority rule. Period. The Senate had plenty of ways to end debate, some of which required less than a majority- like the Chair cutting off a rambling senator.
The Framers were clear that they wanted the Senate to be a majority-rule body. Madison called majority rule “the republican principle” and argued vehemently against letting a minority block the majority. Hamilton called the idea of a minority blocking the majority a “poison.”
Don't take it from me. Take it from Martin Gold, former counsel to Howard Baker and author of a leading manual on Senate procedure: “The possibility that a minority of Senators could hold unlimited debate on a topic against the majority’s will was unknown to the first Senate.”
Read 4 tweets
Jan 17
Mods get their presidential candidates, VA gov candidate, and preferred agenda (ARP + BIF, no structural reforms) and yet we’re still swimming in takes about how it’s the left’s fault. It’d be nice to see mods held accountable for their choices, not just allowed to blame-shift.
McAuliffe’s loss was a great example of how punch-left narratives are accepted without evidence. The idea was that passing BIF earlier would’ve raised Biden’s approvals, carrying Terry to victory. It was a stretch, but it was gobbled up. Well here’s Biden’s approval trend.
Nationally, Democrats are following moderates’ agenda, passing BIF but not BBB nor voting rights nor structural reforms. Biden has been sinking - but is it moderates’ fault? Of course not! It never is. The key is to start from that conclusion, and reverse-engineer a reason.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 22, 2021
A path forward: give Manchin’s 1.8T bill a vote, with a short (~6 month) CTC extension included - a rounding error in a bill that big. Dems would be giving Manchin everything he wants, including time to negotiate a bipartisan CTC solution. In return… 1/ washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/1…
All Dems would be asking, in exchange for giving Manchin everything he wants, is to not let 10 million children slide into poverty while he pursues his bipartisan CTC negotiations. But of course it would be unwise for Dems to simply hope & pray those negotiations succeed. So… 2/
Dems can roll out a more narrowly focused FAMILIES Act, with a long-term extension of the CTC as its centerpiece. We know the CTC complies with reconciliation rules, and there are reconciliation vehicles available next year. This will backstop Manchin’s negotiations, and… 3/
Read 6 tweets
Dec 19, 2021
Everything Manchin cared about was in BIF. While the WH never had much leverage over Manchin, that’s all the more reason to cultivate what little leverage existed. Giving it all away, for free, up front was a strategic mistake. The day Biden endorsed BIF was the day he lost BBB.
The argument that they were linked was a valiant effort, but too clever by half. When the WH rushed to calm GOP outrage and issue a statement walking back Biden’s characterization of the bills as linked, it was a tell that when push came to shove, they would move BIF separately.
The most optimistic take is that Manchin’s comments leave the door open for breaking up BBB and moving some smaller bills. If so, the decision to do an omnibus was a mistake. Even in this “small bites” scenario, it’d be better to have the BIF substance available as sweeteners.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 17, 2021
People often ask me what Reid would have done differently. Hypotheticals are hard: would he have been able to get Manchin and Sinema? Idk. But on one thing I'm confident: the minute he realized the Dem agenda hinged on a 50/50 majority, he would have replaced the Parliamentarian.
You do it right away. With everything else going on, it's a half-day story at best. It's just a staff job. Easy call.
And the CBO director too.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(