NEW: Commissioner of Police Cressida Dick confirms that the Met is now investigating “a number of events in Downing St and Whitehall” over the last two years.
Dick says that officers have assessed a number of other events in Downing St and concluded they do not warrant investigation.

Of those that do Dick says that the fact they are being investigated does not mean FPNs will necessarily be issued.
This is an enormous blow to Boris Johnson. This is a serving Prime Minister’s Downing St, his staff and potentially the man himself being investigated by the police. It leaves open the possibility that they conclude his Downing St broke the law at the height of lockdown.
Beyond the politics and psychology of this the other thing which will worry Number 10 most is that this Met investigation is itself being triggered by the Gray investigation, which suggests her report is going to be a very difficult one for those in Downing St.
Question now is whether we get Sue Gray this week after all. Downing St has said her investigation is continuing. Though we don’t know whether its findings will be published.
We don’t know what the political effect of that is going to be. Up to now SG has been used by No 10 to buy time. *If* we don’t hear SG’s findings this week No 10 will probably argue we should wait for Met’s investigation to conclude.
Question is what the politics of that is and how it lands with Tory MPs. Two scenarios- they conclude they have to wait for the Met. Or they conclude they can’t stand an ongoing live police investigation into Downing St and possibility yet more is thrown up before conclusion.
So looks like no SG this week. Which probably takes immediate pressure off Boris Johnson, with the potentially substantial long term cost of a police investigation *and* SG coming out at a later point.
Some interesting takes on this doing the rounds. A police investigation into Downing St is never helpful to a prime minister, especially in these circumstances. Yes, it may pause ticking clock of SG (doesn’t stop it) but at cost of a police investigation into heart of govt.
There’s also significant wider opportunity costs. Depending on how Con MPs react, this will now continue to haunt govt in background, expending more political energy and Whitehall time.
Paymaster General Michael Ellis says that the Sue Gray inquiry will continue alongside Met investigation.

Though we have no time frames. Also not clear why both will run concurrently, or whether they’ll report at the same time.
Big Qs which remain:

-Will SG report be published after all? Indication is that this might now actually happen this week- possibly minus bits Met is investigating
-Was the law broken in Downing St
and Whitehall? If so who broke it? And was Parliament misled? (see videos below).
If SG report is published this week then Boris Johnson faces week of dealing with SG aftermath after all plus prospect of a police inquiry- a double whammy.
This now seems likely. If so arguably worst of all political worlds for No 10. We get SG after all with the potential political fallout and yet is impossible to fully draw a line and move on as there will be an outstanding and ongoing police investigation.

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More from @lewis_goodall

Jan 26
Here we go- #PMQs

Keir Starmer: "The ministerial code says that ministers who knowingly mislead Parliament will be expected to offer their resignation. Does the Prime Minister think that this applies to him?"
Prime Minister says "yes" but this Q obviously relates to SG inquiry which he cannot talk about. Says government focussed on public's priorities.
Starmer says that on 1st December 2021 he assured the House that all Covid guidelines were followed in No 10. Given "we now know" that wasn't the case, will the Prime Minister resign?

More details about what the PM has said and logic of it below

Read 9 tweets
Jan 26
Jacob Rees Mogg: "It's my view that we have moved to...an essentially presidential system and that the mandate is personal rather than entirely party and each PM would be advised to take a fresh mandate...my view is a change of leader requires a general election." #Newsnight
Fact check: this may be JRM's view as to how the constitution has evolved but it is not the case. There would be no constitutional requirement for an immediate general election, as indeed there wasn't an immediate general election when Boris Johnson took over from Theresa May.
As long as the Leader of the Conservative Party could command the support of the majority of the House of Commons there is no constitutional requirement for a general election until the term of this Parliament expires in 2024.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 24
Big week ahead. One of the central questions is whether Gray presents evidence which contradicts that which the PM has told the House. There are two interventions she might focus on. Watch the videos below to remind yourself where we are and of the logic of what the PM has said.
Part 2
The most important word at play this week, as videos make clear, is the word ‘knowingly’
Read 8 tweets
Jan 22
Extraordinary story from Sunday Times. Fmr minister @Nus_Ghani says she lost her job and was later told by govt whip: “at the reshuffle meeting in Downing St that ‘Muslimness’ was raised as an ‘issue’” and “my Muslim women minister status’ was making colleagues uncomfortable...”
“...There were concerns that ‘I wasn’t loyal to the party as I didn’t do enough to defend the party against Islamophobia allegations.” Ghani says she felt “humiliated and powerless.”

Story says government source close to whips office “strenuously denies” the allegations.
Denial or not, this moment was (rightly) hailed in 2018 as Ms Ghani became the first British Muslim woman to speak from the dispatch box. What a denouement to that story. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
Read 13 tweets
Jan 22
A very foggy Wastwater Image
Ok I really spoke too soon in terms of the fog Image
Truly unforgettable views from Scafell Pike today Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 20
As luck would have it Bury South Labour Party has a zoom CLP meeting- am told attendance is high. Jonathan Ashworth is there, as well as someone from Labour’s regional office. Christian Wakeford is not.
Local sources tell me they’ll be talking about Wakeford from 8pm til 9. Should be a lively hour...
Am told about 70 have dialled in “usually there’s about 13...”
Read 4 tweets

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