New pod w/ @morganhousel on crypto's crash and 3 big stock market myths
open.spotify.com/episode/4hYBOf…
1) Bitcoin is digital gold—a hedge against inflation and equities
2) 10% market corrections are rare phenomena
3) COVID was a boon for pandemic darlings like Peloton and Zoom
open.spotify.com/episode/4hYBOf…
1) Bitcoin is digital gold—a hedge against inflation and equities
2) 10% market corrections are rare phenomena
3) COVID was a boon for pandemic darlings like Peloton and Zoom
1) "Think of Bitcoin like digital gold"
This is almost a double-negative myth. Bitcoin has been an awful hedge; it's down more than the Nasdaq, making it more like a tech stock on steroids.
But as @morganhousel says, gold is historically a terrible inflation hedge, too!
This is almost a double-negative myth. Bitcoin has been an awful hedge; it's down more than the Nasdaq, making it more like a tech stock on steroids.
But as @morganhousel says, gold is historically a terrible inflation hedge, too!
So in a way, you could say that Bitcoin really *is* like digital gold—just not for the reasons that its advocates claim.
Both Bitcoin and gold are volatile assets that people claim as a useful hedge even though their long-term histories suggest the opposite.
Both Bitcoin and gold are volatile assets that people claim as a useful hedge even though their long-term histories suggest the opposite.
2) Myth: 10% market corrections are rare and prove that winter is coming for stocks
Reality: Pullbacks of ~10% or more have occurred 8 times in the last 14 years.
The last seven times it happened, stocks finished up for the year.
Reality: Pullbacks of ~10% or more have occurred 8 times in the last 14 years.
The last seven times it happened, stocks finished up for the year.
3) Myth: COVID was a boon for pandemic darlings like Peloton
Reality: By pulling forward demand and pushing up administration costs, the pandemic took Peloton's (and other pandemic stocks') janky unit economics and made them utterly disastrous.
Reality: By pulling forward demand and pushing up administration costs, the pandemic took Peloton's (and other pandemic stocks') janky unit economics and made them utterly disastrous.
In 2020 and 2021, economic media ppl talked a lot about how the pandemic was ACCELERATING tech trends.
But for companies like Peloton, it accelerated doom by pulling forward demand to the point of exhaustion while pushing up cost structures to the point of unsustainability.
But for companies like Peloton, it accelerated doom by pulling forward demand to the point of exhaustion while pushing up cost structures to the point of unsustainability.
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