Thread by @NIHargrave

Political Twitter has been breathless and with notable exceptions insight-free in recent days. With all due humility therefore a short Thread on what the next few days are actually about re Johnson 1/

Lots of valid and convincing arguments that partygate political kryptonite. Tend to agree. However, imminent days are not about electability. Purely the raw exercise of staying in power and living to fight. Top flight politicians are optimists and believe something will turn up 2

Often said that Tory MPs are the most sophisticated electorate in the world. If only it were so. In reality most are risk averse, career minded and swayed by the psychology of the crowd. Btw same true of Labour - look how long Corbyn lasted 3

For all his failings, the Prime Minister knows this and has a keener sense of human frailty then many. Look at his last 2 X pmqs outings. They are all about the projection of strength and not giving a toss, mixed with a Johnsonian dollop of humour to diffuse the earnest 4

His subtext is clear. I'm not going anywhere no matter how bad it gets. You didn't elect me for ethics. So to get me out you're going to have to take me out. 5

Critically, calculating that contenders for who comes next dare not explicitly question his position from Cabinet. Tory members still pro-ish so you probably won't win a leadership election. Remember most Cabinet members think they should be leader and want good jobs if not 6

Without an explicit alternative pole, MPs will find it harder to organise. So what you get instead is a lot of flailing and texting. Political Twitter in recent days has been the outcome of this. 7

So to the practice. Sue Gray comes out. It's really bad. You say sorry and then pivot to strength as discussed. Objective 1 - avoid 54 letters. You do your round robin of cabinet tweeting - hard to say no unless you want to be written as running...8

...the Mail/Sun/Tele stay broadly on side and you carpet bomb with op eds from outriders and said Cab ministers. You probably fail to stop 54 letters but it's bloody clear that you're not going to lie down 9

So if you do get to 54 letters, rinse and repeat for the confidence vote. You probably go quick to maintain sense of strength. Again, you ask Cab for endorsement and brief out on manoeuvres if they don't. Journos will do spreadsheets. Cabinet comply 10

MPs will vote against anonymously obviously. But again lack of forward momentum from clear successors means you get through it even if scraping. Any win is a win and you don't give a toss if third/close to half of party against 11

Again, you ask the Cab for their endorsement - saying you aren't going anywhere. Crunch moment and you then have to do or die if one of the contenders - with Tory members saying keep him. You need unity to succeed - unity hard 12

Obviously you are heavily wounded and months ahead a shitshow Inc more leaks. Labour pleased. But you live to fight another day and gamble Labour's political operation nowhere near 1990s levels of instinct. Who knows really what 2024 fought on yet 13

To be clear, this is not a finite prediction. I do not have agency in these matters. Only c.360 MPs do. I also think Labour are clear beneficiaries. But this is the 'strong man strategy' the PM will take. Plenty of alternative strategies to counter... 14

...but to succeed you have to be prepared to risk everything. PM has nothing to lose. Cabinet and others everything to lose. ENDS