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Jan 26 • 12 tweets • 6 min read

Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Wed Jan 26th. 1/

(mostly irrelevant stat) Cases/d yest: 3496. Positivity 37.50% (last Tues 38.23%). 2/

Hospitalization: Inpt: Last Tues +14 to 1071 (revised from 1070 yest 1043 Fri 1031 Thurs and 993 Wed) Wed +35 to 1106 (revised from 1103 yest 1068 Fri and 1023 Thurs) Thurs +52 to 1158 (revised from 1153 yest and 1084 Fri). 3/

Fri +46 to 1204 (revised from 1197 yest), Sat +6 to 1210 (revised from 1198 yest) Sun +49 to 1259 (revised from 1241 yest), Mon +44 to 1303 (new pandemic record) (revised from 1266 yest) Yest -21 to 1309 (subj to revision). 7d rise to Fri of 34.6% (yest 38.4%). 4/

ICU Mon +2 to 113 (revised from 111 yest) (new #weararespiratorwave record). Yest -4 to 109 (subj to revision). 7d rise to Mon of 7.6%. Paeds admits 11 incl 1 to ICU (10-19 year old). 6/

Deaths 22. That's an awful lot for one day. Now getting daily deaths of around 13-15/day. As a lagging indicator this will surely rise going forward. Higher deaths than 3rd wave, unsure where this will peak (still worried deaths may be even laggier for Omicron that past waves. 7/

Today Denmark announced a new "let 'er rip" policy, removing all pandemic restrictions on Feb 1st (next Tuesday). This apparently was based on their ICU curve, which has remarkably plummetted in the last few weeks. 8/ ft.com/content/789f07…

This is despite massive ongoing exponential growth, probably driven by the new unnamed variant BA.2 (now >50% of Denmark's cases). 9/

and rapid growth of inpt hospitalizations (similar to back home here). 10/

And deaths still generally climbing slowly. 11/

As for any variant it will be keen to watch the countries with early cases. (France being the other one). I fear where the Let 'er Rip strategy will take Denmark, and of course, Canada. Watch this space. fin/

@ArynToombs

Thanks to AB Health and @ArynToombs for the graphics.

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𝙹𝚘𝚎 𝚅𝚒𝚙𝚘𝚗𝚍

@jvipondmd

Jan 25

Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Tues Jan 25, covering the days of Fri/Sat/Sun/Mon 1/

Knowing that the Cases/d metric is pretty much useless now thanks to limited testing, ftr cases/d Fri 4033, Sat 2642, Sun 1751, Mon 2951. 2/

Positivity is a more useful measure. Fri 38.38 (last Fri 38.64%), Sat 33.79% (35.53%), Sun 36.19% (37.72%), Mon 42.75% (39.27%) (new pandemic record). Of note Calgary Zone at 53.51%, also new pandemic record for any zone. 3/

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@jvipondmd

Jan 19

Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Tues Jan 18th, covering the days of Fri, Sat, Sun, Mon. 1/

Case/d: are no longer super useful, thanks to the narrowing testing criteria. I'll continue to report them, but won't compare to week previous, as this is meaningless. Fri: 6243, Sat 5362, Sat 4138, Sun 3691. (graph is similarly useless so won't be presented). 2/

Positivity: this remains useful. Remembering we're aiming for less than 5% positivity: fri: 38.22% (last wk 41.46%), Sat 35.23% (38.60%) Sun 37.32% (38.86%) 38.81% (38.48%). Essentially flat. 3/

Read 14 tweets

𝙹𝚘𝚎 𝚅𝚒𝚙𝚘𝚗𝚍

@jvipondmd

Jan 15

Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Fri Jan 14th. 1/

Cases/d yest 6326, a 0.2% drop from last Thurs's 6341. 7d ave now 5997 a 44.9% incr wk over wk from 4138. Positivity 37.88% compared to last Thurs 38.42% (essentially flat). Don't let the slight drop wk over wk lull you, changing test criteria make everything inaccurate. 2/

Hospitalizations: inpts. Last Fri +62 to 585 (revised from 681 yest 579 Wed 570 Tues 558 Mon) Sat +16 to 601 (revised from 595 yest 593 Wed 585 Tues and 555 Mon). Sun +41 to 642 (revised from 637 Yest 633 Wed 617 and Mon 563). 3/

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𝙹𝚘𝚎 𝚅𝚒𝚙𝚘𝚗𝚍

@jvipondmd

Jan 13

Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Thurs Jan 13th. 1/

@ByMatthewBlack

Cases/d yest 6002 a 22.7% incr from last Tues's 4892. 7d ave (back tomorrow, @ByMatthewBlack taking a day off) Positivity 40.91% up from last wks 39.17%. 2/

Hospitalizations: inpts. Fri +61 to 581 (revised from 579 yest 570 Tues 558 Mon) Sat +14 to 595 (revised from 593 yest 585 Tues and 555 Mon). Sun +42 to 637 (revised from 633 yest 617 and Mon 563). Mon +43 to 680 (revised from 633 yest and 628 Tues) 3/

Read 9 tweets

𝙹𝚘𝚎 𝚅𝚒𝚙𝚘𝚗𝚍

@jvipondmd

Jan 13

One thing we need to recognize is that we DON'T KNOW so much about Omicron, including the subacute and chronic effects. It's so different from past strains, it's not surprising it is a very different illness. We know it causes less pneumonitis, but what don't we know? 1/

Aside from LongCOVID effects, the other big unknown is the exact mortality curve. I've been watching South Africa, Denmark, and UK, and NONE of them have maxed out their death curve. 2/

For UK, cases peaked Jan 6th, and of course death is a lagging indicator. Danish cases are just peaking now (maybe). So we wouldn't expect either of these countries to have reached their peak deaths yet. 3/

Read 8 tweets

𝙹𝚘𝚎 𝚅𝚒𝚙𝚘𝚗𝚍

@jvipondmd

Jan 12

Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Wed Jan 12th. 1/

Cases/d yest 6975 a 47.6% incr from last Tues's 4726. 7d ave 5848 a 55.7% incr wk over wk from 3757. Positivity 38.33% up from last wks 37.1%. 2/

Hospitalizations: inpts. Last Tues +49 to 470(revised from 466 yest 464 Mon 429 Fri 428 Thurs and 398 Wed) Wed +18 to 488 (revised from 482 yest 475 Mon 448 Fri 434 Thurs) Thurs +21 to 519 (revised from 510 yest 504 Mon 440 Fri) Fri +60 to 579 (revised from 570 yest 558 Mon) . 3/

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