BATTERY PRODUCTION
Haven't watched the call yet, but this ๐ฏ fits what I wrote in my Patreon Newsletter
"Tesla has stopped being battery constrained"
1/
Haven't watched the call yet, but this ๐ฏ fits what I wrote in my Patreon Newsletter
"Tesla has stopped being battery constrained"
1/
https://twitter.com/bradsferguson/status/1486401394877861892
2/
CATL built a plant near Shanghai plant. They bought and renovated an existing building, which saved 7-8 months, and TWO MONTHS AFTER RENOVATION STARTED they altmteadyvsupplied Tesla with LFP batteries
CATL built a plant near Shanghai plant. They bought and renovated an existing building, which saved 7-8 months, and TWO MONTHS AFTER RENOVATION STARTED they altmteadyvsupplied Tesla with LFP batteries
3/
Only THREE months from start they already reached 60% of planned 80GWh capacity!
48GWh in 3 months (11 if from scratch)!!!
Only THREE months from start they already reached 60% of planned 80GWh capacity!
48GWh in 3 months (11 if from scratch)!!!
4/
Add to that that there is no shortage whatsoever of raw materials for LFP, and CATL's partnership with Tesla becomes a rinse&repeat of building plants
And it's not just Shanghai
Add to that that there is no shortage whatsoever of raw materials for LFP, and CATL's partnership with Tesla becomes a rinse&repeat of building plants
And it's not just Shanghai
5/
CATL already announced a new factory in Poland (grunheide is close to Polish border). Poland should be much quicker than Germany in granting approvals, so I expect huge output in 2022.
Shanghai also reaches full 80GWh this year
CATL already announced a new factory in Poland (grunheide is close to Polish border). Poland should be much quicker than Germany in granting approvals, so I expect huge output in 2022.
Shanghai also reaches full 80GWh this year
6/
Tge huge jump in Shanghai output in Nov and mostly Dec 2021 was NOT due to Shanghai expansion like people thought
The expsnsion (and output) were due to the new battery supply (factory started production in Nov.)
Tge huge jump in Shanghai output in Nov and mostly Dec 2021 was NOT due to Shanghai expansion like people thought
The expsnsion (and output) were due to the new battery supply (factory started production in Nov.)
7/
This has HUGE significance:
LFP models 3 and Y will become backbone of sales. Huge amounts, freeing all nickel-based batteries for higher-end variants
Also HUGE ramp in Tesla Energy. Lathrop should flourish.
This has HUGE significance:
LFP models 3 and Y will become backbone of sales. Huge amounts, freeing all nickel-based batteries for higher-end variants
Also HUGE ramp in Tesla Energy. Lathrop should flourish.
8/
Tesla is in a unique position where it's base models are efficient enough to enable acceptable range with LFP.
Entire factories on order gives Tesla huge bargaining power, so cell cost should be cheaper
Tesla is in a unique position where it's base models are efficient enough to enable acceptable range with LFP.
Entire factories on order gives Tesla huge bargaining power, so cell cost should be cheaper
9/
So despite lower price, margins on SRs should remain high
Other bottlenecks (chips etc) could limit production, but 2022 is the year where batteries stop being the limiting factor!
So despite lower price, margins on SRs should remain high
Other bottlenecks (chips etc) could limit production, but 2022 is the year where batteries stop being the limiting factor!
PS
10/
Expect LFP MY in USA
Possibly - Expect LR and Performance prices to rise, so more people would buy LFP
10/
Expect LFP MY in USA
Possibly - Expect LR and Performance prices to rise, so more people would buy LFP
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