Thread by @JeremyCliffe

As ever-more Russian forces arrive on the border, Ukrainians are preparing for the worst. But the mood is impressively calm, measured and stoical.

My dispatch from Kyiv 🇺🇦:

newstatesman.com/international-…

Most Ukrainian officials, politicians and civil society figures I speak to consider a full-scale Russian invasion extremely unlikely and imminent action of any sort far from certain. The departure of some US and UK embassy staff is deemed excessive and an unhelpful signal.

Explanations for this sanguine view: 1) 🇺🇦 has been under 🇷🇺 assault *already* since 2014, 2) its government wants to avoid panic, 3) its establishment (for the most part) does not believe Putin mad enough to attempt the sort of maximalist attack some in Western capitals fear.

The thinking goes: 🇷🇺 lacks the forces for a full invasion, resistance would be fierce, and occupying major 🇺🇦 cities would result in a bloody quagmire (think Grozny 1995), so to believe Putin would risk that you have to take a very pessimistic view of his current mental state.

More conceivable, goes the thinking, is targeted action in Donbas and/or cyber-warfare and/or air-strikes and/or a swift, time-limited raid deeper into Ukrainian territory, up to a blockade of Kyiv. To force quick diplomatic concessions providing a win and setting a precedent.

To be clear: these too are blood-chilling prospects. It is surreal to witness people discussing air raid shelters, potential escape routes, emergency supplies etc in a major European capital in 2022. But Ukrainians are a tough lot and there is (mercifully) no sign of panic.

(Incidentally, reports that Putin might seek to topple the 🇺🇦 government in favour of a pro-🇷🇺 one are considered borderline laughable. Ukrainians have turned emphatically away from Russia since 2014. The imposition of a Kremlin puppet would be a recipe for insurrection.)

So what next? A recurrent argument is that Putin already has his negotiations, already has piled pressure on 🇺🇦, already has made West look divided; that he is keeping his options open, gradually upping pressure & seeing what possibilities arise - militarily OR diplomatically.

The officials, politicians and civil society figures I speak to are unanimous in praise for UK arms deliveries and in their disappointment at Germany's feeble support (its move to block Estonia from sending weapons has caused particular hurt and anger.)

What Ukrainians want most from their allies right now:

- to be full included in key talks
- more arms, especially anti-aircraft
- economic support, eg backing Ukrainian bonds
- targeted action against Putin's kleptocratic cronies and their interests in West (looking at you, 🇬🇧)

As I write in the article, those allies have a moral responsibility to step up - both in the interests of Ukraine's legitimate right to sovereignty and self-determination, and in defence of those principles globally.

[THREAD ENDS]

newstatesman.com/international-…