Nat Bullard Profile picture
Jan 27 11 tweets 5 min read
Thread: How the world got to $755 billion in energy transition investment in a single year. @BloombergNEF did the math. 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/ Energy transition pulled in $755 billion, a 25% increase over 2020 investment, double what was invested in 2015, and a more than 20-fold increase since 2004. This is deployment money - financing market-ready tech at scale. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3/ Key: in pure dollar terms, renewable energy is not the growth driver it once was. With $366 billion invested last year, renewable energy is still a driver of investment *volume* (it is still almost 50% of all investment). bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
4/ Energy transition investment *growth* comes from electrified transport: $270+ billion last year. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
5/ Look at these CAGRs: electrified transport is growing 48%, which is exactly 10x the pace of renewable energy (4.8%). For that matter, energy storage is growing at 36%, at which rate dollars invested double in two years. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
6/ Now: climate tech investment. $165 billion last year, across sectors and asset classes. Here's the first cut, by asset class. The IPO window was wide open with $40 billion in listings, and there were $35 billion of climate tech SPACs. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
7/ The climate tech PIPE market reached $14 billion last year; secondary share sales topped $21 billion.
8/ But the biggest climate tech asset class?
Venture capital and private equity. $54 billion in 2021.
Transport got 41% of $, energy 27%, but basically every type of endeavor got funded last year (even the buildings sector) bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
9/ As climate tech companies mature and move from VC and PE dollars to public markets liquidity, their capital needs increase. Making the move from innovation to deployment is not a matter of degree — it is a matter of orders of magnitude. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
10/ Even if only a fraction of companies supported by last year’s $54 billion in climate tech VC and PE succeed at global scale, their capital needs for deployment will be in the hundreds of billions of dollars. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
11/ Combine their potential successes with continued incremental growth in renewable energy, and massive growth in electrified transport, and energy transition investment will hit the $1 trillion annual mark quite soon. /end bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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More from @NatBullard

Jan 6
1/ A few evolving thoughts on what decentralization means for energy and electric transport systems, as both scale up massively in the 2020s.
2/ First we are going to get so much more of...everything. About 300 gigawatts of installed small-scale solar today, going to 10x that much; 22GW of batteries, going to 2,800 (130x). bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3/ Then there are electric vehicles, connected/mobile/potentially bi-directional+transactive batteries. 10% of sales already, with so much headroom in a $2-2.5T annual market
Read 17 tweets
Dec 2, 2021
In 2020, the entirety of global power generation growth came from renewable sources. It's a first, for many reasons. But, it's also only part of the global story, and what comes next is even more interesting. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Despite the Covid-19 pandemic, global power generation fell only two-tenths of a percent for all of 2020. Coal-fired power generation fell 3% year on year; gas-fired power fell 1%, and nuclear power declined 3%. Wind, solar, and hydropower all grew. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
It's worth zooming out on this chart a bit though. coal’s contribution to power generation growth is very evident through 2014 and again in 2017 and 2018. Natural gas power growth is also evident as are the steady additions of wind and solar power. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 9 tweets
Dec 1, 2021
A short 🧵on challenges of even short-term forecasts of exponential markets: solar PV.
1. @IEA: 150+ gigawatts this year base case. Base is up from 2020, and it's already a bonkers figure: way more than biggest annual coal+gas additions ever iea.org/reports/renewa…
2. But that base is probably too low. And the accelerated case is right around where @BloombergNEF and @solar_chase have our case (~180GW), but as Jenny says, "there's always more solar than you think there is" so maybe that's low
3. Then there's this data, from @laurimyllyvirta: trailing 12 months of Chinese PV cell manufacturing output is 227 gigawatts (which is 50%+ of last year's global installations)!
Read 6 tweets
Nov 30, 2021
🧵1/ Some findings from @KPMG annual Global Automotive Exec Survey. Highlights on strategy, electric vehicles, commodities here. Start: 48% of execs say they're very/extremely prepared for the next crisis (or disruption - rather different those) home.kpmg/xx/en/home/ins…
🧵2/ Auto execs are quite concerned about commodity and component supply continuity home.kpmg/xx/en/home/ins…
🧵3/ By 2030 - execs think that most big markets will be ~50% EV sales...but Japan(!) same as China and US, and US ahead of W. Europe...and with massive quartile variation home.kpmg/xx/en/home/ins…
Read 11 tweets
Nov 30, 2021
🧵1/ Lithium-ion battery pack prices fell 6% year-on-year to $132 per kilowatt-hour (real 2021$). That's down 90% since 2010's $1240/kWh! But, there is much more to it than headline figures. Highlights from @BloombergNEF @JamesTFrith follow. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/ On a volume-weighted average basis across the battery industry, prices fell to $132 per kilowatt-hour in 2021. This is down from $140/kWh in 2020 (in real 2021 dollars). The 6% drop isn’t as drastic as the 9% decline we had forecast last year. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3/ Why are this year’s prices higher than expected? The cost of raw materials used in the cathode — lithium, cobalt and nickel — and other key components including the electrolyte have risen this year, putting more pressure on the industry. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 12 tweets
Nov 10, 2021
Today @BloombergNEF published its Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Factbook. Great stuff in here, starting with this: EV sales were 7% of passenger vehicle total in 2Q 2021. 🧵/1 bloomberg.com/professional/d…
🧵/2 Expecting 5.6 million EVs sold this year, up from 3.1 million in 2020 bloomberg.com/professional/d…
🧵/3 Electric vehicle outlooks are more bullish every year bloomberg.com/professional/d…
Read 21 tweets

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