I can understand why bears think Elon is delusional. But the execution is unbelievably impressive. That's his MO -- set impossible expectations and when they fail, they will be much farther along than if he hadn't set those goals.
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1/
"Lastly, thanks to $5.5 billion of GAAP net income in 2021, our accumulated profitability since the inception of the Company became positive, which I think makes us a real company at this point. This is a critical milestone for the Company."
"Real company" at $1 trillion 😅
2/
"So, it's -- the cars in the fleet essentially becoming self-driving by a software update, I think, might end up being the biggest increase in asset value of any asset class in history."
You can't fault Musk for being too modest 😁
3/
"I think actually the most important product development we're doing this year is actually the Optimus humanoid robot. This, I think, has the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business over time."
The robot could be more significant than the car business?!?!
4/
"If you think about the economy, it is -- the foundation of the economy is labor. Capital equipment is distilled labor. So, what happens if you don't actually have a labor shortage? I'm not sure what an economy even means at that point. That's what Optimus is about."
5/
"I think it really becomes quite a compelling solution to the consumer where you integrate the electric vehicles charging, solar, energy storage, hot water, HVAC in a very tight compact package that also looks good. It just doesn't exist."
This is pretty cool.
6/
On insurance:
"We get direct feedback on whether driving is safe. And if they drive safe, their insurance cost is less, so they drive safer. It encourages Tesla Insurance with informatics and real-time feedback encourages safer driving and rewards it monetarily. It's great."
7/
"So, yes. I would be shocked if we do not achieve Full Self-Driving safer than human this year. I would be shocked."
See original tweet! :)
8/
On robotaxi potential:
"I just do not understand how profound change this is. It's not like some little feature, select the most profound software upgrade, maybe in history. Millions of cars suddenly have about 4 or 5 times utility overnight."
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Opendoor is intriguing to me now that Zillow is out of the picture.
Here are some bear theses I see and some potential rebuttals...
#1: Housing will crash
#2: Unsustainable business model
#3: Capital intensive
#4: iBuying is unsustainable
#5: Low gross margins
2/
#1: Housing market will crash
Even in 2008, the biggest single-month decline was 2.5%. Opendoor holds houses for about 90 days and about half of that is in contract with a buyer.
The actual exposure/duration is quite short and Opendoor has a strong pulse on the market.
3/
Further, the core purpose of Opendoor is to increase the liquidity of housing. It's almost like a market maker.
In crisis, the bid-ask spreads are typically wider, leading to higher margins for the market maker. Opendoor could actually have better margins in a panic.
"To others, being wrong is a source of shame; to me, recognizing my mistakes is a source of pride. Once we realize that imperfect understanding is the human condition, there is no shame in being wrong, only in failing to correct our mistakes.”
- George Soros
On defaults ⬇️
1/ It's important to think about our "defaults"
Do we approach every decision with the default setting that we're always right?
Or that we could be wrong?
2/ A lot of investors put their identity in the fact that they are great decision-makers.
After all, that's what this game is all about!
But what happens when you're completely sure you're right and the evidence begins to go against you?
Within these, you have different sizes of customers though. In SaaS, oftentimes enterprise customers are growing faster and have lower churn because of the high dollar amounts.
2/ Retail/Restaurant
1. # of stores 2. average unit volume
It's important to understand the number of total stores management thinks is possible. Pair this with the efficiency of the store and you can get an end-game revenue estimate.
1. BNPL value prop 2. Very excited about the new debit card 3. New savings product 4. Decrease of Peloton concentration 5. Not as many multi-year 0% APR deals 6. No Amazon GMV embedded in guidance
1/ "Our core insight was that the generations coming of age after the financial crisis of 2008 were no longer willing to tolerate getting into permanent debt by putting it all in the card, or getting burned by late fees and deferred interest"
2a/ Affirm Debit Card
"The next frontier of unbundled payment is daily spent, groceries restaurants, incidental purchases. This is why we're so excited to be rolling out the very first card of its kind, the Affirm Debit+ card."