Thread by @SolomonADersso

Thread on resurgence of coups @ecowas_cedeao extraordinary session today decided to suspend #BurkinaFaso following the coup on 25 Jan. This makes the fifth incident of military takeover of power in Africa in nine months time (between April 2021 and Jan 2022) /1

Such high number of coups in less than a year is exceptional, signifying clear trend of upsurge of coups, with risk of reversals of whatever progress made in reducing the frequency of occurrence of coups with AU/ECOWAS anti-coup norms /2

Some six factors seem to be at play and the interplay of these six factors & how these factors are addressed stand to determine the trajectory of the current resurgence of coups & prospect for return to constitutional order in affected countries /3

1st worsening of the democratic governance deficit, deepening loss of whatever limited legitimacy gov'ts enjoy, compounded by failure of electoral democracy to deliver on public expectations for improved standard of living & manipulation of constitutional term limits (Guinea)/4

2nd the inability of weak or fragile state institutions to withstand the severe pressure from socio-economic impacts of COVID-19 and mounting insecurity including from the spike in terrorist attacks & their intensity, with blames put on the gov't leadership of the moment (Mali)/5

3rd SS governance problems as crisis of civil-military relationship, grievances of wo/men in uniform over real or perceived lack of support from & failure of civilian leadership, creating pretext to take matters into their hands in face of crisis (Guinea, Mali, Burkina.../6

4th the neighbourhood or domino effect, with perceived 'success' of a coup & apparent weakening of cost of coups in face of apparent 'public support' inspiring an officer next door sharing similar experience & exposure to try his luck/7

5th the increasingly negative consequences of the meddling of foreign powers, particularly in the context of intensifying Cold War type struggle for influence as well as the 'intended or unintended' consequences of security cooperation (Mali, Guinea, Burkina, Sudan .../8

6th the lack or disappearance of convergence within & between African actors and partners on enforcing the regional anti-coup norms, the credibility gap of the reactive nature of AU & ECOWAS measures & failure to sanction 'constitutional coups' & consistently apply sanctions/9

The foregoing show that the context for effective enforcement of anti-coup norms has become weakened, necessitating revisiting of gaps &crafting of tailor made set of interventions for each case, going beyond a response confined to templated application of punitive measures.10/10

This thread expands on an earlier piece I did for @thecontinent_

@africa_amani also did a special research report last September which has acquired more significance given events in Sudan, Mali (with additional sanctions) and Burkina Faso amaniafrica-et.org/critical-refle…