It is certainly possible that Putin will backdown, but then the buildup will have been a strategic failure for Moscow. NATO countries will consider future buildups as bluffs and will draw the lesson that increased arms exports to Ukraine were decisive and will send more arms.
https://twitter.com/lukeharding1968/status/1488050051503083523
There will be a credibility cost for Russia and Kyiv will only be more emboldened to purse policies that will upset Moscow and to seek longer-range weapon systems. It would be a remarkable strategic blunder for Putin, which is why I think an escalation is more likely.
Plus, they are deploying a lot of equipment and units from the Eastern Military District. It is highly unlikely Russia would keep this force in Belarus until next fall. They'll be in a strong position to escalate once the exercise is over but readiness costs will soon increase.
And remember that Russia conducted a buildup in the spring that was designed to force NATO and the US to listen to its concerns. That buildup failed to achieve Russia's goals, which leads me to believe Moscow is more likely to use force this time if it doesn't get what it wants.
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