Some people misinterpreted this tweet. Russia doesn't have all the pieces in place yet but is moving them right now (e.g. helicopters, VDV, air defenses, pipeline troops, logistics, etc.). They'll likely all be in place by February 9th. That's when an escalation is more likely.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1488262303187308546
Many of the units deployed near Ukraine aren't fully manned. I suspect we'll soon start seeing troops airlifted to Ukraine's border to man this equipment likely during the exercise in Belarus. If Russia wants to conduct a large-scale escalation, it will then have the capability.
Also worth keeping in mind when looking at negotiations with Russian officials that they are continuing to deploy forces, including from the Northern Fleet, near Ukraine. They may get close to 100 BTGs + 5 Iskander-M brigades and other important capabilities in two weeks.
And there are the 6 amphibious large landing ships from the Baltic and Northern Fleets currently hanging out in the Mediterranean. I suspect they would be moved to the Black Sea before an escalation would occur.
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