Job openings rose to 10.9 million in Dec, again approaching record highs despite the surging Omicron wave.
Even though Omicron is pushing COVID to record levels, employers are hoping that the wave will be temporary & are keeping jobs open for when the wave recedes.
The increase in job openings in Dec was concentrated in accommodation & food services, despite the impact of Omicron. Job openings in the sector are lower than the summer peak of 1.67 million, but still up significantly over the pre-pandemic record of 1.02 million.
The decline in quits was most concentrated in health care and accommodation & food services. A bit of a surprise given that in the past, a rise in COVID cases has tended to push up quits in COVID-sensitive industries.
If you exclude temporary layoffs, there were just shy of 2 job openings per unemployed worker in Dec.
Speaks to the scale of the mismatch in the job market: there were 4.6 million more job openings than unemployed workers in Dec (even including temporary layoffs).
Quits and openings both fell in December despite Omicron, but both are still elevated. This is a reminder that in part, the "Great Resignation" can be easily explained by the tight job market, where more job opportunities for workers means more turnover.
Job openings fell to 10.6 million in Nov, still near record highs but lower as the resurgent Delta wave in Nov crimped demand for workers, even before the impacts of Delta are fully felt.
The slowdown was primarily in accommodation & food services (no surprise worker demand there falls as the pandemic worsens). Job openings in accommodation & food services are at their lowest since April 2021, though they're still up 62% over the course of the pandemic.
Despite the drop in job openings, the number of unemployed per job opening fell to 0.65 in Nov (or 1.54 job opening per unemployed worker). A year ago, this figure was reversed with 1.59 unemployed per job opening.
The increase in job openings was concentrated in accommodation & food services as employers felt more comfortable hiring with the Delta wave starting to wane in Oct. Remains to be seen whether that will continue in Nov given the slow #jobsreport we saw last Fri.
New BLS state #JOLTS data today! Playing around with it:
-Hires per job opening don't seem to be improving in August
-Gap seems roughly stable btwn states withdrawing early from UI vs those not
-UI withdrawal proponents would want to see evidence of hires/opening ⬆️ , gap ⬆️
Consistent w/ the rough comparisons in state employment data released this morning as well. See @bencasselman's thread for findings & appropriate caveats (most of which apply to the JOLTS data too):
The longer history shows the gap is not very stable btwn groups & the range of values is very wide, emphasizing the difficulties in this type of analysis.
Interestingly, early withdrawing states have generally had higher hire yields except early in the pandemic.
The answer is yes. The Oct '21 Beige Book is the 1st time "mental health" for workers has been discussed
Mental health has only been mentioned 6 times previously. The 1st mention was in Apr 2020 & all prior mentions were about demand for mental health services, not worker health
And this pairs nicely with new research from @LaurenTEcon out today finding employee discussions of mental health & burnout on @Glassdoor have more than doubled since the pandemic began:
Overall, this is also part of a broader emphasis on company culture & employee engagement that has grown since the Great Recession and first appeared in the Beige Book in 2017.
Initial UI claims SA fell slightly last week to 290K, hitting another new intra-crisis low.
Initial claims are continuing to decline as the Delta wave recedes. Delta is on the downswing but cases are still elevated, suggesting further room for improvement.
Continuing UI claims (SA) hit another intra-crisis low too, at 2.48 million. The decline has accelerated since mid-September, perhaps due to increased hiring after the Delta wave peaked in early-to-mid September
The expiration of federal unemployment benefits was mentioned 7 times in the the Fed's October Beige Book today:
3: little to no impact
2: modest increase in applicants/workers
1: expects future increases
1: concern about negative impact on household finances of recipients
Vaccine mandates were also mentioned in 6 sections. Discussions mostly about turnover, though more forward-looking as mandates start to take effect.
2: Increased turnover
2: Turnover, but less than expected
2: Concern about future turnover
Incidentally, I wonder if this is the first time the Fed Beige Book has ever mentioned mental health in the context of workers:
> Worries about employee mental health, burnout, safety, and vaccine mandates impacting company culture were mentioned.