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Feb 1 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Here's your problem Kiwis. A persistent atmospheric river running for the next 111 hours across most of the country.
And after that you may or may not get hit by a moisture laden Northerly Storm/Cyclone.
16 day atmospheric water forecast.

You can chalk this up to #ClimateChange.
Satellite presentation over the last 24 hours.
Current Met Service Warnings.
"..rain is expected to cause dangerous river conditions and significant flooding. Slips and floodwaters are likely to disrupt travel, making some roads impassable and possibly isolating communities."
News Coverage
Scoop >> 1. scoop.co.nz/stories/AK2202… 2. scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2202…
Stuff >> stuff.co.nz/national/12765…
Update #ExtremeWeather #KiwiDeluge thread, after the rain started falling....

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Feb 3
This is the UK-Met model's solution at 120 hours. As the AccessG model is associated with the UK-Met model (which only runs for 144 hours) for this reason I am discounting it in this scenario. The ECMWF and GFS models are the two tropical phenomena specialist models. Image
Here we see the ECMWF models 120-240 hour prognostication.
And here's the GFS 120-240 hour prognostication.

The main difference at the starting point is that the GFS is expecting four lows two strong & two weak and this results in a sharply different outcome.
Read 9 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Feb 3
Spaghetti model simulations of several tropical storms currently north west of NZ are not looking at all good.

The possibility of a cyclone coming into the Tasman and making landfall on NZ's West Coast is now non-zero. Image
The above map is the European ECMWF ensemble map for the area. This specific model map is for SPO9 a designated disturbance/low pressure system of concern.

Until very recently the models had suggested it would be pulled away to the East of NZ - which is what typically happens. Image
In this region we have four different models (GFS-US, ECMWF-Euro, AcessG-AU and CMC-Canada) each of which has a different solution on how this will play out.

But the trend is in the direction of a threat to NZ. Each of these plots show the water/energy modelling for around 12/2. ImageImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Feb 3
Very Intense Cyclone Batsirai #ExtremeWeather Update 4. 3/2/21

#Batsirai has slowed down to a crawl, it has been moving WSW at 5mph (7kmh) for the past 17 hours at least. It is also wobbling and weakening. But the current official forecasts do not reflect this WRT to landfall. ImageImage
This is common for an EWRC [Eye Wall Replacement Cycle], after which the storm can be expected to strengthen rapidly. #Batsirai's eye is certainly now very ragged. (images here used to verify speed and heading data). It appears the track is to the north of the current forecast. ImageImageImage
The much larger eye indicated in the latest imagery is still full of cloud, and it appears the EWRC is complete. ImageImage
Read 13 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Feb 2
Update Thread:

#ExtremeWeather #Madagascar #Batsirai #CycloneBatsirai

Intense Cyclone Batsirai has strengthened rapidly and grown significantly larger. It has now passed Mauritius and its outer bands are now over Reunion.
Madagascar is 1000kms long top to bottom and #BatsiraiCyclone's outer bands are roughly the same size. With sustained winds of over 113 knots the storm is now the equivalent of a Category 4 Major Hurricane. Image
The JTWC's latest forecast track update #13 shows the storm maintaining very intense cyclone intensity up to landfall (of the eyewall - maximum strength winds) in the morning on Saturday. Rain and high winds will arrive on Friday. Image
Read 12 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Feb 1
A satellite view over NZ this morning. Two massive atmospheric rivers are colliding over the Tasman sea and delivering rain in massive quantities over the South Island.
Zooming in to the satellite imagery we can see that this stream of clouds is a massive area of convective thunder storms sweeping in from the North.
This version incorporates radar rain data, all the loops are for six hours as the sun rises.
Read 8 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Feb 1
Stormy Weather.

A thread looking at the first month of 2022 from a very zoomed out perspective. A series of 30 day animations of satellite imagery from @NASA Worldview.

We begin in the South West Indian Ocean which is currently being monstered by a new Cyclone Alley.
@NASA Next stop the South West Pacific which has had several Cyclones, but thankfully none making landfall in NZ. << touch wood >>.
@NASA Staying mostly in the Southern Hemisphere we now look at South America and the extraordinary Amazon Basin which has experienced record flooding and had a remarkable impact this winter on both North and South Africa producing massive atmospheric rivers to the NE and SE.
Read 12 tweets

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