Elizabeth Spiers Profile picture
Feb 1 7 tweets 2 min read
This was a thing that was referenced to me several when I talked to people about wanting to build a decentralized liberal media org in 2017 and tried to raise money for it.
I had to explain to several potential investors why we weren’t Air America even though we weren’t a radio operation and were not commentary focused.
Liberal donors have a low tolerance for risk and failure. Conservatives do not and it matters in terms of who invests where.
Hypothetical conservative donor, let’s say “Blob Purser”: here’s $20 mm, throw it against a wall, see what sticks, come back to me and we’ll double down.

Lib donor: oh you need $5 million? Show me what you can do with $500 in 12 months.
Also libs: And by the way here’s a person who has no experience building a media co that we gave a relatively giant check to and their media co failed! Obviously this model doesn’t work.
Several times, rather. This is why I want an edit button. I do it when I write columns too. Brain goes faster than fingers and I skip words. Once I skipped half a sentence genuinely convinced I put it in there.
And btw I think there were a lot of brilliant people associated with Air America. Failure was not a function of lack of smart people.

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More from @espiers

Feb 1
I don't want to write about Bari for the Nth time, but having read that piece, the author (who apparently left Bryn Mawr not because it was woke but because she refused to get vaccinated and was also failing out) claims to be a liberal....
indicates that she's not. You're mad that your white classmates acknowledge that BIPOC people have it harder? Why? And then she transfers to Hillsdale(!). If you're not familiar with Hillsdale, it's not just conservative compared to Bryn Mawr; it's full on right wing.
I've written about Evangelical megachurches before and am on Hillsdale's mailing list as a result. I get their newsletters, which are full of bigoted nonsense and anti-democratic sentiment. Hillsdale is basically in the Claremont/Bob Jones/Liberty ecosystem.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 30
This is a good example of how framing affects response in survey design. (The first option implies that Biden has not considered all possible nominees before committing to nominate a Black woman.)
You might get a different response if your two options were: "I think Pres. Biden should keep his promise to nominate the first Black woman to the Supreme Court" and "I think it's okay for Biden to break his promise to nominate the first Black woman to the Supreme Court."
Bad polling is sometimes about bad fielding and sampling methodologies, but most of the really bad stuff I see is bad because the *questions* are bad. They introduce biases, lead the respondent etc
Read 7 tweets
Jan 30
Polling is designed to uncover correlations, not determine causation. (How do I know this? My firm does polling!) Your ignorance is not my dishonesty.
If you wanted to design an experiment that would determine causation, you could probably design a randomized controlled field experiment. They're far more expensive than polling though.
And looking at the survey's methodology, it seems like they went to great length to account for potential confounding variables. Inasmuch as survey data can tell you anything about Rogan listeners / vax resistance, this is the best you're going to get.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 30
Maybe there’s an argument to be made that Joe Rogan spreading disinformation has no effect on people (which would make him an exception in the disinfo ecosystem) but nearly anything is a better source than a twitter poll.
If you wanted to survey Rogan listeners you would need to sample them across the board. The cross section of Rogan listeners who also follow you on twitter is not broadly indicative of Rogan listeners.
Then you need some sort of incentive to screen out respondents who are invested in the outcome of the poll. You want neutral participants, not people who agree with the thread you’re attaching your poll to and know where you stand.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 29
Was describing the six year old earlier to @Sulliview and @MollyJongFast , the later of whom has met him, as a diligent rule follower when the rules makes sense but gleeful violator when they don’t. Also a very calculated risk taker who hates needless physical risk.
(This is also me, lol.) So six year old watches Jackass-type stuff and says, “why are these idiots doing this? They could die”
But is also like, “I don’t understand why you and dad have all of the power” and then makes a not totally unreasonable argument for why we don’t deserve it. I mostly keep a straight face.
Read 9 tweets
Dec 30, 2021
This is so interesting. I generally enjoy (I think?) being a woman—except for the pay gap, and the shittier healthcare—but a thing that is frustrating is that you’re so socialized to repress frustration because you get punished for any overt display of anger…
And then something happens that’s the last straw, but it’s minor, and you burst into tears. And it doesn’t reflect how you actually feel about it—probably not that mad—but it just comes out because you’re taught not to let it out the way men do.
Probably 98 out of the last hundred times I’ve cried, i wasn’t sad; I was pissed off. And then I was pissed off at myself for crying, which is exactly the opposite of what I wanted to convey.
Read 7 tweets

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