Scotland: 2022 mortality, Week 4 (NRS) scottishunity.org/scotland-morta…
Although mortality is keeping the high level (25 per 100k), it’s good to see keeping within the normal range / below average, after such extraordinary excess through summer 2021
Same data but shown by cause, with ‘covid mortality’ split by vaccination status. 83% of ‘deaths with covid’ vaccinated, and more majority now becoming ‘boosted'
This times excess mortality, by cause and location.
Location: All excess occurring at home.
Cause: Only others. Notably although we have ‘covid deaths’, total respiratory (taken including covid) is at/below normal.
Summary of excess deaths since the start, by location.
94.2% of excess deaths in Scotland have occurred at home, mostly cancer, then others, then heart attack / stroke. With the bad decisions affecting care homes in Mar/Apr 2020, it’s a terrible picture.
Excess mortality in 2022 so far, by cause and location.
Below normal which is good, but continuing excess at home.
Mortality in children continues normal, both <1 year, and age 1 to 14.
Finally correlation summary of mortality by age, just as we haven’t posted this for a while. (We review everything and more every week, but don’t always post all charts)
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Public Health Scotland - covid data
Booster proportion continues to rise rapidly - a higher proportion of cases, hospital admissions and ‘covid deaths’ than the proportion of the population
Maybe #TheDrugsDontWork ?
“But we have to look at population"
Okay, same data by rate. Compared to unvacinated, booster is
- 30% more likely to ‘catch covid’ (test positive)
- 20% less likely to be hospitalised
- but 70% more likely to be a covid death
“But we have to consider different ages!"
Okay, age-standardised. Firstly, case risk. These are 95% confidence ranges, so the correct answer is ‘probably’ in the shaded range.
Both boosted and two-dose are more likely to catch covid (test positive) than unvaccinated. 🤔
COVID mortality, 4 ways. 1/ PHS published their weekly report, one of the datasets is ‘covid deaths’ over the last 4 weeks. What could be simpler?
The raw numbers look like this. We can see double-vaccinated is highest, and ‘Booster’ 50% lower.
2/ The raw data fails to account for the population numbers of each - so we can divide deaths by population, to get a mortality rise for each cohort.
Booster is largest population, and risk looks lower, 75% down. Unvaccinated notably lower risk than 1 or 2 dose
3/ The above doesn’t account for age, so ‘age-standardised mortality’ is estimated, the 95% confidence areas below. This hugely raises the risk of 2 doses, and collapses for ‘Boosted’. This appears an artefact of (inappropriately?) considering when someone is ‘Boosted’.
Scotland: 2022 mortality through week 02 (NRS) scottishunity.org/scotland-morta…
If record summer excess was not caused by restricted healthcare... what caused it?
If record summer excess WAS caused by restricted healthcare…why has the excess stopped? Healthcare still restricted.
🤔
Scotland: 2021 mortality through week 46 (NRS)
Week 45 was revised up to +21% from the five year average, and Week 46 initially at 11%.
Now 26 consecutive weeks, but good to see a lower number. scottishunity.org/scotland-morta…
Scotland: 2021 mortality through week 43 (NRS) 1/ Overall
Yet another really high week.
Week 42 was revised up to being +25% from the 5yr average, and this week is +26% (+272 additional deaths). 23rd consecutive week of excess - the longest bad streak on record.
2/ Excess by cause
The majority continues to be non-covid as we’ve been seeing since the start of summer, but ‘covid deaths’ (death by any cause within 28 days of a positive test) making up a sizeable amount, as has been the case recently
2b/ Excess by cause
Breaking this down, we see weekly and cumulative excess for each cause.
Several notable points, especially sharp inflection in heart/stroke from a pre-summer plateau.