Twitter is so terrible because with social media even the illiterate masses get to voice their views, right?
Wrong.
In a new preprint, we find that the most hateful in political discussions are more resourceful: Engaged, efficacious & educated: psyarxiv.com/tp93r/
🧵(1/10)
We obtained US survey participants' Twitter IDs in order to connect their psychological & political profile to Twitter activity (N=2012). In addition to toxicity & sentiment, we assessed their tweets' level of political hate with this classifier: psyarxiv.com/8m5dc/. (2/10)
Our preferred measure ("political hate") is significantly predicted by political engagement, political interest, internal efficacy and education. For toxicity and sentiment, results are in the same direction. We see no evidence that hostility is higher among the unengaged. (3/10)
The classical expectation in political science is that efficacy and education are the "universal solvents" that turn people into "model democratic citizens". But this is not so here. We conjecture that this could reflect the current context of polarized US politics. (4/10)
We estimated interactions between our predictors and affective polarization. Indeed, engagement only breeds hate among those who held affectively-charged negative views of the opposing party. Engagement fuels hate, rather than democratic citizenship, in polarized contexts. (5/10)
To get at causality, we use that (1) we have tweets over time and (2) our measure of "political hate" can be separated into two vectors of "hate" and "politics". As people tweet more about the politics, their tweets also become more hateful, toxic and negative over time. (6/10)
But does this matter? As long as the hateful is a small minority, locked into their own echo chamber, they can fight all they want, right? The problem is that they are not. The hateful tweet more, have more followers and follow more account themselves (7/10).
As consequence, those high in hate are much more interconnected to everybody else & much more visible than those low in hate. As argued elsewhere, this increased visibility is exactly what causes social media to be felt as such toxic places (cambridge.org/core/journals/…). (8/10)
In sum, Twitter is not hostile because the platform democratizes access to politics. Rather, it is because engaged, efficacious & educated individuals, polarized by current politics, use Twitter to spew hate from their privileged network positions, for everyone to see. (9/10)
The paper and analyses was led by @stighebbelstrup together with @Osmundsen_M, as part of the @ROPHproject. Note that this is an unreviewed preprint. Comments are most welcome! (10/10)
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Today, Denmark lifted *all* restrictions, while cases are soaring.
The international reaction: Disbelief.
I am leading the largest Danish project on pandemic behavior & I am advising the gov.
Here is why Danes are still supportive. And what may be learned from this.
🧵(1/19)
The graph is from here: ft.com/content/037a3a…. It shows the complexity of the epidemic situation. Cases are extremely high, hospitalizations are rising and deaths are rising slowly too. But people in ICUs are dropping. (2/19)
Despite this, a clear majority of the public supports removing all restrictions (nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2022-0…). A minority (28 %) is concerned. (3/19)
Den faldende støtte afspejler sig også i en faldende opbakning til en række restriktioner. Der er stadig flertal for en række - også hårdere - restriktioner, men niveauet er faldende. (2/10)
Faldet i opbakning kan skyldes en faldende bekymring. Folk er lige nu mere optimistiske end bekymrede. Og de er (en anelse) mere bekymrede for nedlukninger end for deres eget helbred. Der er dog stadig høj bekymring for hospitalernes kapacitet. (3/10)
The end will not be easy. Moving a public out of a crisis demands as much leadership as activating the initial crisis response
A research-driven 🧵 on a key challenge of 2022 & how to deal with it
(1/13)
The graph shows the % of Danes using masks daily from a N~400,000 survey from our @HopeProject_dk
The ups-&-downs reflect when authorities required masks. It is a case of optimal crisis behavior: Immediate strong compliance when needed. Immediate relaxation when possible. (2/13)
A coordinated public response requires (1) clear advice from authorities, (2) high levels of trust in that advice, and (3) shared feelings of threat. Studies of crisis responses thus find that trust & threat are their key causes: doi.org/10.1080/002239… (3/13)
Data is from Denmark but can inform other countries in terms of the drop-off from 2nd to 3rd jab. Overall, 94.7 % of those vaccinated are willing to take the booster. Yet, there are strong age differences. Those below 40 are more reluctant. (2/4)
To understand the underlying psychological dynamics, we look at constructs from Protection Motivation Theory (doi.org/10.1080/002239…). People who feel less societal threat and have less trust in the efficacy of the authorities' advice are less likely to take the booster. (3/4)
In spring '21 vaccine acceptance rose as vaccines were rolled out.
Then came news of rare but severe side-effects from the AstraZeneca vaccine.
Our new paper shows that this caused international vaccine hesitancy: doi.org/10.1016/j.vacc….
A thread on what can be learned🧵(1/9)
In March '21, news emerged about blood clots following vaccination with AZ (science.org/content/articl…). Public attention grew strongly when 3 Nordic countries suspended the use of the vaccine altogether on March 11, as seen from this plot of search volumes. (2/9)
A previous study concluded that this suspension didn't create hesitancy: ugeskriftet.dk/dmj/sustained-…. Yet, this study compared hesitancy from two time points a month apart. If vaccine acceptance was trending upwards, this may be a problematic analysis strategy. (3/9)