In spring '21 vaccine acceptance rose as vaccines were rolled out.
Then came news of rare but severe side-effects from the AstraZeneca vaccine.
Our new paper shows that this caused international vaccine hesitancy: doi.org/10.1016/j.vacc….
A thread on what can be learned🧵(1/9)
In March '21, news emerged about blood clots following vaccination with AZ (science.org/content/articl…). Public attention grew strongly when 3 Nordic countries suspended the use of the vaccine altogether on March 11, as seen from this plot of search volumes. (2/9)
A previous study concluded that this suspension didn't create hesitancy: ugeskriftet.dk/dmj/sustained-…. Yet, this study compared hesitancy from two time points a month apart. If vaccine acceptance was trending upwards, this may be a problematic analysis strategy. (3/9)
On the week March 11, we tracked daily rates of vaccine acceptance in 8 countries:🇩🇰🇭🇺🇮🇹🇺🇸🇩🇪🇸🇪🇬🇧🇫🇷. In prior months, acceptance *had* been rising (blue dots) in all countries with the succesful roll-out. Some countries suspended the vaccine a few days later. Others didn't. (4/9)
Across all countries, acceptance was 8 %-points lower following the suspension relative to March 10. The effect was driven by countries that ended up suspending themselves. Acceptance in these countries took two hits: One on March 11 and one when they suspended themselves. (5/9)
What can be learned? Should authorities be less public about this? Certainly not. Transparency is key for upholding trust (doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2…), which again is key for public support for the overall vaccination program (incl., e.g., boosters) (bmjopen.bmj.com/content/11/6/e…). (6/9)
That the effect is limited to countries that suspended suggests that it depends on being part of the same info eco-system (e.g., reliance on EMA). This shows how crucial rapid information sharing is to help the authorities in other countries communicate effectively. (7/9)
Information should be shared both about the discoveries but also about the strategy. What are the specific considerations behind the suspension? One country's decision will depend on many local factors, which may not apply elsewhere: thelancet.com/journals/lance…. 👇 (8/9)
Worst, the news reached the developing world too: apnews.com/article/europe…. Adding hesitancy to vaccine inequity is unacceptable.
During a pandemic one country's actions will affect everyone else. We are in this together & responses need to reflect this at every step. (9/9)
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Smitten sætter rekord, omikron dominerer - og julen står for døren.
Alt det betyder, at borgerne i den seneste uge har skærpet opmærksomheden på at undgå kontakt og dermed smitte.
🧵(1/4)
Borgernes bekymring er relativt høj og steg kraftigt, da man opdagede at også vinteren '21 ville blive en corona-vinter. Bekymringen er dog ikke steget siden omikron spredte sig. Det tyder på, at borgerne stadig er afventende ift. hvad omikron betyder for vinteren. (2/4)
Samtidig er der dog en bevidsthed om, at anbefalingerne lige nu ikke er tilstrækkeligt at stoppe smittespredningen. (3/4)
Ovenstående grad viser den totale villighed i befolkningen. Grafen nedenfor viser andelen blandt dem, der har fået eller ønsker vaccination med 2 stik. (2/5)
Udover alder betyder demografi ikke det store. Uanset køn og uddannelsesniveau er villigheden til at tage næste stik stor. (3/5)
The forecast should be of wide interest as DK is intensively testing & sequencing. The situation is likely not worse here than elsewhere. It is just known.
A 🧵 on this forecast (1/9)
Some key premises for the forecast:
- The forecast includes both delta and omicron
- Waning immunity is included. It is assumed that immunity is 0.70 against O relative to D and that immunity against O wanes faster
(2/9)
More premises:
- DK is rapidly rolling out boosters to face O. 1/3 of all are boosted! This is included
- Not all restrictions are included, especially not closing of most cultural activities from today
- Includes people's voluntary behavior change as infections rise
(3/9)
Western societies were already frail when COVID-19 hit.
In a new paper, we show that the pandemic, and the fatigue from it, eroded trust in democracy further: psyarxiv.com/qjmct
With omicron, stronger restrictions are again put in place & the erosion will deepen.
🧵(1/7)
Over 2020, we tracked 6000 citizens from 🇺🇸+🇮🇹+🇩🇰+🇭🇺 & their views of key relationships in society: Horizontal relationships of solidarity between citizens + vertical relationships of trust between citizens & the state. We used measures with clear pre-pandemic benchmarks. (2/7)
We pool across multiple indicators and standardize with pre-pandemic scores to track changes from after the pandemic hit. Overall, we see little consistent change in solidarity. The pandemic has not been a crisis in the relationship between citizens. (3/7)
HOPE-projektet bidrog til den langsigtede strategi mod COVID-19, "Hverdag med øget beredskab": fm.dk/media/25241/3-…. (som figuren 👆 er fra)
Inputtet gav anledning til følgende anbefaling i hovedrapporten (fm.dk/media/25157/hv…).
Den har ikke været vigtigere end nu. (2/12)
Den seneste HOPE-rapport viser, at borgerne har en markant faldende optimisme (github.com/Hopeproject202…). Samtidig er der bekymring for hospitalernes kapacitet, der er på højde med 2. bølge. (3/12)
In the next days, graphs (like👇) will show explosions of omicron & lockdowns will re-appear across Europe.
To motivate fatigued publics, it is key to not just appeal to fear. Communication should help people cope & envision how to pull thru.
An evidence-based 🧵 on how. (1/5)
Studies on crisis communication argues that good communication needs to identify the problem *and* tell people how to deal with the problem (doi.org/10.1111/bjhp.1…). The "through-the-roof"-graphs only does the former. (2/5)
In Jan 2021 with alpha, we used epidemic modelling to draw a graph that both identified the problem *and* spoke to the hope of dealing with the problem: psyarxiv.com/gxcyn/. It shows the race between variants & vaccines and the need for distancing until vaccines arrive. (3/5)