En pandemi er en voldsom krise. Ikke blot for sundheden, men for samfundet.

Ny HOPE-rapport viser klare tegn på mere mistillid, udmattelse & splittelse: github.com/Hopeproject202…

Flertallet støtter stadig håndteringen, men niveauet er det lavest målte.

#dkpol #dkmedier 🧵(1/10) Image
Den faldende støtte afspejler sig også i en faldende opbakning til en række restriktioner. Der er stadig flertal for en række - også hårdere - restriktioner, men niveauet er faldende. (2/10) Image
Faldet i opbakning kan skyldes en faldende bekymring. Folk er lige nu mere optimistiske end bekymrede. Og de er (en anelse) mere bekymrede for nedlukninger end for deres eget helbred. Der er dog stadig høj bekymring for hospitalernes kapacitet. (3/10) ImageImage
Faldet i opbakning skyldes givetvis også en anden udvikling: Stigende mistillid & udmattelse. Udmattelsen er på niveau med 2. nedlukning, trods at restriktionerne er meget lavere. HOPE-forskning viser også at udmattelse stiger med tiden (psyarxiv.com/y6wm4/). (4/10) Image
Ligeledes er der en faldende oplevelse af at vi står sammen. Oplevelsen har kun været lavere 2 gange: Da mink-sagen startede og da genåbningsforhandlingerne brød sammen i februar 2021. Der kom splittelsen "oppefra". Lige nu virker det som om splittelsen kommer "nedefra". (5/10) Image
Der er fortsat et stor mindretal på ~30 % som mener, at håndteringen har været for vidtgående. Denne andel er dog ikke steget klart henover vinteren. (6/10) Image
Derimod er der tegn på en faldende tillid til myndighederne. Tidligere perioder med splittelse havde især et politisk fokus. Men gradvist er der tegn på, at den faglige del af håndteringen også rammes. Faldet er dog lille, og der er generelt stadig høj tillid. (7/10) Image
Der er også et lille men statistisk signifikant fald i tilliden til vaccinerne. Vaccinerne blev godkendt pba. beskyttelsen mod alvorlig sygdom. Senere skiftede fokuset til smitte i kommunikationen. Og med omikron giver dette nu bagslag. (8/10) Image
Trods mistillid i nogle grupper, er andre grupper stadig bekymrede for smitte. Bekymringen retter sig fx imod senfølger. Et kompromis mellem de bekymrede & de ubekymrede kan dog ligge i, at et flertal mener, at høj smitte kun er et problem, hvis det belaster hospitalerne. (9/10) Image
I coronakrisen kan man ikke blot styre efter smittetallene. For stor forsigtighed kan sætte tillid & sammenhold over styr. Samtidig skal der udvises lederskab overfor grupper, hvis de er unødigt bekymrede. Kriseledelse består også i at hjælpe folk og samfund ud af krisen. (10/10)

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More from @M_B_Petersen

1 Jan
2022 is the 3rd year of COVID & perhaps the last: who.int/news-room/comm…

The end will not be easy. Moving a public out of a crisis demands as much leadership as activating the initial crisis response

A research-driven 🧵 on a key challenge of 2022 & how to deal with it

(1/13)
The graph shows the % of Danes using masks daily from a N~400,000 survey from our @HopeProject_dk

The ups-&-downs reflect when authorities required masks. It is a case of optimal crisis behavior: Immediate strong compliance when needed. Immediate relaxation when possible. (2/13)
A coordinated public response requires (1) clear advice from authorities, (2) high levels of trust in that advice, and (3) shared feelings of threat. Studies of crisis responses thus find that trust & threat are their key causes: doi.org/10.1080/002239… (3/13)
Read 13 tweets
26 Dec 21
🚨 NEW PREPRINT

To control omicron countries are rolling out booster vaccines.

As consequences, both epidemic forecasts & control now hinge on behavior: How willing are people to receive the booster?

We provide data using a high-quality survey: psyarxiv.com/wurz8/

🧵(1/4) Image
Data is from Denmark but can inform other countries in terms of the drop-off from 2nd to 3rd jab. Overall, 94.7 % of those vaccinated are willing to take the booster. Yet, there are strong age differences. Those below 40 are more reluctant. (2/4) Image
To understand the underlying psychological dynamics, we look at constructs from Protection Motivation Theory (doi.org/10.1080/002239…). People who feel less societal threat and have less trust in the efficacy of the authorities' advice are less likely to take the booster. (3/4) Image
Read 4 tweets
22 Dec 21
In spring '21 vaccine acceptance rose as vaccines were rolled out.

Then came news of rare but severe side-effects from the AstraZeneca vaccine.

Our new paper shows that this caused international vaccine hesitancy: doi.org/10.1016/j.vacc….

A thread on what can be learned🧵(1/9)
In March '21, news emerged about blood clots following vaccination with AZ (science.org/content/articl…). Public attention grew strongly when 3 Nordic countries suspended the use of the vaccine altogether on March 11, as seen from this plot of search volumes. (2/9)
A previous study concluded that this suspension didn't create hesitancy: ugeskriftet.dk/dmj/sustained-…. Yet, this study compared hesitancy from two time points a month apart. If vaccine acceptance was trending upwards, this may be a problematic analysis strategy. (3/9)
Read 9 tweets
22 Dec 21
Ny HOPE-rapport om borgernes adfærd: github.com/Hopeproject202…

Smitten sætter rekord, omikron dominerer - og julen står for døren.

Alt det betyder, at borgerne i den seneste uge har skærpet opmærksomheden på at undgå kontakt og dermed smitte.

🧵(1/4)
Borgernes bekymring er relativt høj og steg kraftigt, da man opdagede at også vinteren '21 ville blive en corona-vinter. Bekymringen er dog ikke steget siden omikron spredte sig. Det tyder på, at borgerne stadig er afventende ift. hvad omikron betyder for vinteren. (2/4)
Samtidig er der dog en bevidsthed om, at anbefalingerne lige nu ikke er tilstrækkeligt at stoppe smittespredningen. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
21 Dec 21
Hvor stor er villigheden til at modtage en booster-vaccine?

Villigheden er høj. 96 % af dem, som har modtaget 2 stik, ønsker også det tredje. Men villigheden varierer, og særligt de yngre siger "nej tak".

Læs rapporten her: bit.ly/3spAGZe

🧵 (1/5)

#dkpol #dkmedier
Ovenstående grad viser den totale villighed i befolkningen. Grafen nedenfor viser andelen blandt dem, der har fået eller ønsker vaccination med 2 stik. (2/5)
Udover alder betyder demografi ikke det store. Uanset køn og uddannelsesniveau er villigheden til at tage næste stik stor. (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
19 Dec 21
Yesterday @SSI_dk released a forecast for omicron's spread in Denmark: ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/fi…

The forecast should be of wide interest as DK is intensively testing & sequencing. The situation is likely not worse here than elsewhere. It is just known.

A 🧵 on this forecast (1/9)
Some key premises for the forecast:
- The forecast includes both delta and omicron
- Waning immunity is included. It is assumed that immunity is 0.70 against O relative to D and that immunity against O wanes faster
(2/9)
More premises:
- DK is rapidly rolling out boosters to face O. 1/3 of all are boosted! This is included
- Not all restrictions are included, especially not closing of most cultural activities from today
- Includes people's voluntary behavior change as infections rise
(3/9)
Read 9 tweets

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