(1) "The second man appeared to be in his 50's or early 60's, had a long grey beard, was wearing a worn puffy jacket, had a larger frame, and was around 6 feet in height"
- Tom Sowinski, The Avery's newspaper delivery man
(2) In John Ferak's patch.com article, that broke this story, we also found out:
"The man with Bobby Dassey moving the RAV-4, Zellner said, looked to be at least 6-feet-tall and, he had a beard between 8 inches to 12 inches long."
- Michael Osmunson (too young)
- Chuck Avery (wrong build)
- Scott Tadych (unlikely)
- Alan Avery (possibly)
- Earl Avery (possibly)
- Osmunson's Dad or Uncle (possibly)
- Someone associated with the gun dealer phone call (possibly)
- Other (possibly)
(4) Among the Avery gang and Scott Tadych, Alan Avery is the most likely suspect, unless a disguise was used, or the person shaved off the beard after being seen.
Someone should have noticed that.
(5) Michael Osmunson's dad, Ozzie, fits the description, but this picture is current, not from 2005. Back then he was too young.
(6) Michael Osmunson's uncle, Don Osmunson, was born in 1944, and would have been 61 in 2005. He lived directly across the street from Michael on Nuclear Road in Mishicot. He no longer owns the house, as of 2020.
(7) A lead came in over twitter suggesting the gun dealer's name was Kevin Hansen. The lead showed a picture that I believe is actually Duane "Ozzy" Osmunson in 2017 or so. This is very preliminary.
(8) I did find a current picture of a Kevin Hansen, working in Sheboygan, WI. The name is fairly common, so this is not a probable lead.
(9) @ZellnerLaw is no longer soliciting leads on the Gray Beard man. I suspect they have identified the person with some certainty.
I apologize that I have no idea who it was.
(10) ETA: I found notes, and I had ruled out Kevin Hansen from Sheboygan. Here's another picture of Duane "Ozzy" Osmunson circa 2017 or so (left). He does match the photo that was original attributed to Kevin Hansen (right).
(11) From the collaboration of the false alibis, and the lies they both told about their whereabouts on 10/31/2005, we know Bobby Dassey and Scott Tadych engaged in a conspiracy.
It's possible the man with Bobby pushing the RAV4 was Scott Tadych, maybe disguised.
(12) Alan Avery may also be a person of interest. He was old enough at the time, and did sport a variety of beards. Bobby Dassey was grand kin; that could have made a difference.
(13) Perhaps the most likely gray beard is someone we just haven't heard about.
If the conspiracy goes beyond Tadych and Bobby, we just didn't get enough investigation to know the facts.
(14) ETA: I think @Joriz74 put this exhibit together, which shows flyover video that corroborates Tom Sowinski's affidavit.
I've enlarged the middle and bottom pictures on the right, so you can see the tire tracks. The arrows go above the tire tracks.
(15) @Joriz74 has corrected me. @MKUniversoul provided this analysis of the flyover video and Tom Sowinski's affidavit. Thanks so much MKU, and sorry for the misattribution.
Here is my summary of the RAV4 Sightings and closely related events. Please comment, as this is just Iteration 2 of a working theory. I will got through each step in this thread.
(2) Assumptions:
A. Non-perp witnesses mostly correct.
B. Rahmlow tipped Colborn before he was assigned to the case.
C. Ryan/Mike did see the RAV4 on Tuesday night.
D. RAV4 at pond during flyover, but police failed to find it.
E. Pam Sturm was told where to find the RAV4.
(S1.1) Avery/Dassey see Teresa with RAV4 across from the Maroon Van:
This is the starting point, and I drew it with a black background because it is a known and corroborated sighting.
Both Avery and Dassey claim to last see the RAV4 here.
At first glance, the RAV4 witness statements don't tell a clear story, but can we develop a working theory to decode these RAV4 sightings?
(2) The main conflict is between Wilmer Siebert and Tom Sowinski:
- Siebert sees the RAV4 planted via the Salvage Yard conveyor road, while Sowinski sees it pushed into the yard from WI 147 via Avery Road.
- Siebert sees it running, while Sowinski sees it needing to be pushed.
(3) Because the RAV4 is running, it seems to me that Siebert's story must precede Sowinski's.
In fact, Siebert may have witnessed a failed attempt to get the RAV4 into the Salvage Yard. The RAV4 may have been left on conveyor road, where many HRD dogs later alerted.
(1) In his March 30th, 2006 police interview, SCOTT TADYCH places himself in the Janda/Dassey laundry room on the week Teresa disappeared.
He's questioned about this because he has had loose lips at work, casting suspicion on Brendan.
(2) SCOTT TADYCH's admission corroborates statements made by Steven Avery about SCOTT in his supplemental affidavit of Nov 14th, 2017.
(3) Steven swore under oath:
10. My work schedule at the salvage yard was from 8:00 a.m. until 5:00 p.m., Monday through Friday. Several times when I was at work, I noticed Scott Tadych enter the property in his green truck and proceed to Barb's trailer, where Bobby was at home.