Thread by @39Magilla

(1) Decoding the RAV4 Sightings:

At first glance, the RAV4 witness statements don't tell a clear story, but can we develop a working theory to decode these RAV4 sightings?

(2) The main conflict is between Wilmer Siebert and Tom Sowinski:

- Siebert sees the RAV4 planted via the Salvage Yard conveyor road, while Sowinski sees it pushed into the yard from WI 147 via Avery Road.

- Siebert sees it running, while Sowinski sees it needing to be pushed.

(3) Because the RAV4 is running, it seems to me that Siebert's story must precede Sowinski's.

In fact, Siebert may have witnessed a failed attempt to get the RAV4 into the Salvage Yard. The RAV4 may have been left on conveyor road, where many HRD dogs later alerted.

(4) The planters may have left the RAV4 on conveyor road and left in the Jeep to regroup.

They decide to go back later to bring the RAV4 through the main entrance late at night, but when they go back, the RAV4 battery is dead.

This puts Siebert's sighting on 11/04 after noon.

(5) The only remaining conflict is between a possible sighting of the RAV4 in one frame of the CASO Flyover video and Sowinski's date for moving the RAV4.

It would suggest the RAV4 is not there in the CASO Flyover frame, which many believe already.

(6) This reconciles all the RAV4 Sightings, but it also means Pam Sturm found the RAV4 without being told where it was beforehand.

I'm not sure I can believe that, but at least it's a consistent working theory. Who am I to question the Holy Spirit?

(7) Let's review all the evidence related to the RAV4 sightings, and see if it supports or disproves our RAV4 working theory.

I've left off the location west of the yard that caused Bobby's and Scott's cell phones to ping off an unusual tower. Let's take a look at that.

(8) Here's a table showing my analysis of Steven's and Bobby's Cell Phone tower information.

Even when Bobby is hunting he is expected to use his Mishicot based home tower #370 sector 1, but at 3:02 pm, he unexpected connects to tower #363 sector 1.

(9) The diagram below shows the location of tower #363, pinned on the left, and that of his home tower #370, pinned on the right.

The perpendicular line shows the midpoint between the towers. Bobby's call most likely occurred to the west of this line.

(10) In addition we know that Bobby connected to Sector 1, which points north in some fashion.

This means Bobby's call most likely originated west of the perpendicular line and north of the connecting line.

(11) The Kuss Road cul de sac is East of the dividing line, but the Tower #363 may have a higher elevation or more signal strength and this could move the dividing line a bit.

At home, Bobby connected to Mishicot Tower #370 and he would also connect to it from Scott's trailer.

(12) After leaving Steven's home, Bobby probably lured Teresa somewhere to the west to meet Scott and take a picture.

From there, Bobby drove Scott's green Ford Ranger to the Old Mishicot Dam Roundabout, as Blaine avowed, and Scott drove Teresa there in the back of her RAV4.

(13) The RAV4 remained at the Old Mishicot Dam Roundabout where it had been left on Halloween, as the perpetrators focused on Teresa.

When they heard about the police effort to find her on 11/03, their priorities shifted.

(14) They hatched a plan to plant something with Steven's DNA in the RAV4 and then plant the RAV4 on the Avery property.

On 11/03, Scott waited in his Ranger off the Kuss Road cul de sac as Bobby watched Steven, looking for an opportunity to fulfill their plan.

(15) While Steven shopped at Menards, they found the blood in Steven's sink, lifted it with q-tips and baggies, and left to smear it inside the RAV4, which was waiting on conveyor road, leaving the faint smell of blood in their wake.

(16) They scouted a way in from the back and returned to the RAV4 only to find out that the battery was dead, and there was no way they could push it through the pit.

The RAV4 sat on conveyor road for another night, with Steven's blood planted in it.

(17) I suspect that Bobby Dassey stole a battery from the Salvage Yard battery room and they tried to replace it at conveyor road. Perhaps it ran for a while, then the battery cable came off.

For some reason, Bobby and Grey Beard had no other option but to push.

(18) This working theory morphed a bit, but it seems to work pretty well with the major facts.

I'll continue to develop it, including an analysis of the Loof Tracks. I suspect it will be very similar to my Ryan theory, with Tadych filling in for Ryan.

(19) I'll also develop an alternative version, where Ryan does find the RAV4 on 11/4, and Pam Sturm is told where the RAV4 was. It's just too hard to believe that she was led to the RAV4 by the Holy Spirit.

(20) The alternative Working Theory would look something like this.

(21) To reconcile Affidavits with this working theory:

A. Rahmlow does not see the RAV4 on 11/4 as he claims. Perhaps he reported it to Colborn a day earlier*.

B. Sowinski event occurred one day before he claimed (11/4, not 11/5).

*Colborn SWH 582 call was 11/3 @ 922pm.

(22) This leaves the door open for Ryan H finding the RAV4 on the conveyor road on 11/3, and taking the police there on 11/4, only to find it moved.

This would explain why the trip took so long, leading to Chuckie seeing the flashlights in the pit.

https://twitter.com/39Magilla/status/1489772172738535426

(23) ETA: When the RAV4 is brought to the conveyor road on 11/3 during the day, they may have just wanted to leave it there until nightfall because the Avery Boys were in the ASY. When they come back, the battery is dead.

(24) ETA: @TTMFanGirl provided this picture of the Avery Auto Salvage Yard battery room, where Bobby Dassey had access to many batteries very nearby.

https://twitter.com/TTMFanGirl/status/1489804611208855556

(25) ETA: This #TickTockManitowoc post on reddit provides additional evidence that there were Teresa Halbach Missing Person posters at Cenex in Mishicot.

(26) Color Version of Teresa Halbach's "Endangered Missing" poster that Ryan handed out copies of, is dated 11/02/2005. Time stamp is visible on 11/04/2005 video (left) and on poster (right).

(27) Another version of the Poster, with Police department phone numbers and a picture of the RAV4 on it..

(28) Poster seen in Screen Capture of Netflix "Making a Murderer":

(29) Action 2 News showed this picture of the RAV4 on 11/3/2005.

(30) The wayback machine first archived this URL with Teresa's poster on May 6, 2006.

web.archive.org/web/2006051118…

(31) Another Copy of the poster with the RAV4 picture on it. Note both poster types show the plate number that Colborn ran.

(31) Ervin Koehnke's entries in the CASO Report, pages 221, 350 and 353. Note he sees a different car there on Thursday, 11/04.

(32) Note Ervin remarks that the vehicle "was not the same color". What color was he expecting? The poster and television notification both mistakenly said "DARK GREEN".

https://twitter.com/39Magilla/status/1489868075491016706

(32) Better link to MTSO Officer Ryan's Dispatch Call discussing the MIssing Poster at Cenex.

(33) Note that the Dispatch Call by MTSO Officer Ryan (first name) says:

"Didn't they find the lady dead in Manitowoc today."

He's referring to Carmen Boutwell, who was found dead in her apartment on 11/03/2005, which puts this call on that date.

https://twitter.com/39Magilla/status/1489869167645839360

(34) Officer Ryan is believed to be Mishicot Police Chief Ryan Gilbert. This would confirm that the Cenex was in Mishicot, and the call is on 11/03, because of the reference to Carmen Boutwell.

(35) WBAY shows a Gas Station in Sherwood with a Poster on 11/04/2005. This version of the poster says the RAV4 was Dark Green.

(36) It seems clear that posters did go up on Oct. 3rd, 2005, but could they have been up "before noon"?

Kevin Rahmlow remembers it being "before noon" when he spoke to Andy Colborn in uniform. Andy worked 1200 to 2000 hours, Oct 3rd, but not Oct. 4th.

(37) For Rahmlow to be correct about meeting Colborn at Cenex, in uniform and before noon, he had to see Colborn prior to his shift starting on Oct. 3rd or during his shift, after noon (upper left).

Remember Colborn makes the Sam-William-Henry call at 9:22 pm on Oct. 3rd (rest).

(38) Remember this sequence of radio conversations:

I believe Rahmlow had to alert Andy Colborn to the RAV4 plate number and location prior to 9:15 pm on 11/03.

It may even have been before Andy knew about the case, which would explain his confusion.

(39) It's very possible the RAV4 was gone by the time Andy Colborn returned to the Mishicot Roundabout by the Old Mishicot Dam, and MTSO buried the sighting, so as not to look like "complete jackasses".

(40) More on Mishicot Police Chief Ryan Gilbert, from r/TickTockManitowoc:

Also <deleted> confirms Chief Ryan saw a missing person poster at Cenex on the day Carmen Boutwell was found dead in Manitowoc (11/03).

reddit.com/r/TickTockMani…

(41) Remember, Assistant District Attorney Jeff Froelich contacted MTSO and told him that Ervin Koehnke had seen Teresa's unlit RAV4 at the Mishicot Turnaround (Old Mishicot Dam) on Thursday Morning, Oct. 3rd, 2005.

There was no mention of a broken windshield or driver window.

(42) Though Inv. Dedering's first contact about Ervin Koehnke was before Nov 10th, 2005, He doesn't follow up the contact until Jan 19th, 2006.

His excuse is that he couldn't find contact info, but he could have called ADA Froehlich back for it.

https://twitter.com/39Magilla/status/1489972290154545159

(43) Remember, Steven Avery was arrested on Nov 9th, 2005, so Dedering had no interest in following up the Ervin Koehnke lead. By Jan 19th, District Attorneys were calling the shots and probably wanted this "potentially exculpatory" information closed.

https://twitter.com/39Magilla/status/1489973550295531521

(44) When Inv. Dedering (aka Deder-Deder) finally spoke to Ervin Koehnke, its Jan 21st, 2006, some 72d after the sighting.

Note, facing east is away from the road, which runs NW and SE, and he claims to have seen a broken windshield and driver's window.

(45) Ervin Koehnke also saws that he saw the RAV4 on TV around the time of the sighting and on Dec 6th, 2005, during the preliminary hearing, and it was not the same color, but the TV News shows kept saying the RAV4 was DARK GREEN.

(46) Remember that Dedering (Deder-Deder) had a strong motive to bury the Ervin Koehnke RAV4 sighting at the Mishicot Roundabout: it was highly exculpatory.

It would have proved that the RAV4 left the Avery property and was not where it was found earlier in the week.

(47) ADA Froehlich had seen Ervin Koehnke on Channel 11 News before he contacted CASO, and he made no mention of the broken windshield and driver's window.

Wouldn't these have been key observations on the News coverage?

No one has yet found the coverage Froehlich saw.

(48-1) Fox 11 Footage up to Nov 15th, 2005, Part 1 of 4:

(48-2) Fox 11 Footage up to Nov 15th, 2005, Part 2 of 4:

(48-3) Fox 11 Footage up to Nov 15th, 2005, Part 3 of 4:

(48-4) Fox 11 Footage up to Nov 15th, 2005, Part 4 of 4: