New @CDCgov
Reduction of death by vaccination and booster by age, per 100,00 people, vs unvaccinated, relative, with absolute data below covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
Age 65+
2 shot 92% reduced
3 shot 99% reduced
Age 50-64
2 shot 95% reduced
3 shot 99% reduced
By age: cases and vaccination/booster status
As cases were rising steeply in December with emergence of Omicron, booster vs 2-shot was associated with 50% or more reduction of cases across the 3 age groups
And much higher % drop for vaccination vs unvaccinated
Which goes along with this new data posted showing booster had vaccine effectiveness of >60% vs Omicron infections covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
The data for hospitalization by age and vaccination status were also recently posted by @CDCgov
Vaccination plus booster vs unvaccinated
Age 65+ 98% reduction
Age 50-64 97% reduction
latest available absolute data posted with graphs below
The @CDCgov has been doing a better job of getting relevant data out and deserve credit for this effort. A long way to go to get up to speed, but let's recognize a real improvement in recent weeks
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US lagging European peers by vaccine doses and boosters, especially notable in age 60+
"On December 20, 30% of people in the US over-65 had gone six months since receiving a second dose, compared with just 2% in Portugal; 5 per cent in England; and 7% in Denmark."
Graphic that shows differences in vaccination waning for US vs England, Denmark and Portugal, age 60+
Brief update on Omicron, and its BA.1 and BA.2 lineages (sisters) 1. Origin—the 3 theories for how this hyper-mutated version of the virus evolved nature.com/articles/d4158…@nature
3. The BA.2 variant is spreading widely, throughout many countries in Europe and Asia, out-competing BA.1, indicating higher transmissibility. But the good news from yesterday's @UKHSA: vaccination + boost is holding up quite well; there's no indication of more immune evasion
2. The vaccine effectiveness (VE) vs Omicron symptomatic infection vs Omicron falls off 15+ weeks, as was seen with the Israeli data, here more so with Pfizer compared to Moderna
3. But protection (VE) vs Omicron hospitalization remains quite high (Moderna > 90% thru 9 weeks)
ICU admits may be the best proxy for lack of vaccinations. Israel and the US have low rates of vaccination (65, 63%) and have seen rising ICU rates in their Omicron waves (not seen in high vaxx % countries) @OurWorldInData
Clarification: Colors are swapped on the vaccine right-sided panels. Israel has slightly more 2-shot vaccination and >2X boosters
Important graph from @StavKislev that supports my point
How to reduce your chance of dying from Covid by 99%?
Get vaccinated and a booster.
One of the most impressive graphs I've seen for the impact of vaccination in the US pandemic
(thanks @redouad@OurWorldinData for re-plotting my makeshift graph from earlier today)
Highlighting the data above are for all ages
Graphs for vaccination vs deaths by age groups (w/o booster partitioned):
Now deaths by age groups: 65+, 50-49, 18-49
For each group, death is reduced by 99% for vaccination plus booster compared with unvaccinated (down to zero for youngest age group) ourworldindata.org/grapher/united…
What to make of Omicron's BA.1 and (sister) BA.2 lineages?
Both are hyper-mutated with over 50 mutations but many are different, particularly in the spike and ORF1a regions outbreak.info /1
There's not any functional or epidemiological data to show any meaningful differences....yet. But BA.2 has become dominant in Denmark, out-competing BA.1, and its prevalence is rising in India, Singapore, Sweden, the UK and other countries /2 Graph via @Mike_Honey_
The spread of BA.2 supports increased transmissibility (hard to imagine beyond BA.1, O's sister). On Jan 21st, UK designated it as a variant under investigation ft.com/content/34fef1… More to learn, keep 👀, no reason for distress at this point (we already have enough of that)