I do not understand why Dems are so bad at messaging around inflation and why political reporters don't seem to understand what's causing it. The Occam's Razor explanation is demand surges (economy's doing well, people spending) + labor shortages + supply chain madness.
The Republican talking point is that it must be social spending. No serious economist believes this, but I hear it repeated by centrist Dems who have internalized this nonsense. And political reporters who don't understand economics.
And yes, inflation is bad. It's also a natural outgrowth of a rapid recovery. Would we rather not have a recovery?We're doing very well by most economic metrics, and all anybody can talk about is inflation. That's a win for people who hate social spending.
Trump was always yammering on about the Dow while wages stagnated and GDP growth was the worst since Hoover. And it worked. A shocking number of Americans think the economy was good under Trump.
Here's what the Biden economy looks like: good metric, good metric, good metric, inflation, good metric, good metric, good metric. And there's only one thing anyone's talking about.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
This was a thing that was referenced to me several when I talked to people about wanting to build a decentralized liberal media org in 2017 and tried to raise money for it.
I don't want to write about Bari for the Nth time, but having read that piece, the author (who apparently left Bryn Mawr not because it was woke but because she refused to get vaccinated and was also failing out) claims to be a liberal....
indicates that she's not. You're mad that your white classmates acknowledge that BIPOC people have it harder? Why? And then she transfers to Hillsdale(!). If you're not familiar with Hillsdale, it's not just conservative compared to Bryn Mawr; it's full on right wing.
I've written about Evangelical megachurches before and am on Hillsdale's mailing list as a result. I get their newsletters, which are full of bigoted nonsense and anti-democratic sentiment. Hillsdale is basically in the Claremont/Bob Jones/Liberty ecosystem.
This is a good example of how framing affects response in survey design. (The first option implies that Biden has not considered all possible nominees before committing to nominate a Black woman.)
You might get a different response if your two options were: "I think Pres. Biden should keep his promise to nominate the first Black woman to the Supreme Court" and "I think it's okay for Biden to break his promise to nominate the first Black woman to the Supreme Court."
Bad polling is sometimes about bad fielding and sampling methodologies, but most of the really bad stuff I see is bad because the *questions* are bad. They introduce biases, lead the respondent etc
If you wanted to design an experiment that would determine causation, you could probably design a randomized controlled field experiment. They're far more expensive than polling though.
And looking at the survey's methodology, it seems like they went to great length to account for potential confounding variables. Inasmuch as survey data can tell you anything about Rogan listeners / vax resistance, this is the best you're going to get.
Maybe there’s an argument to be made that Joe Rogan spreading disinformation has no effect on people (which would make him an exception in the disinfo ecosystem) but nearly anything is a better source than a twitter poll.
If you wanted to survey Rogan listeners you would need to sample them across the board. The cross section of Rogan listeners who also follow you on twitter is not broadly indicative of Rogan listeners.
Then you need some sort of incentive to screen out respondents who are invested in the outcome of the poll. You want neutral participants, not people who agree with the thread you’re attaching your poll to and know where you stand.
Was describing the six year old earlier to @Sulliview and @MollyJongFast , the later of whom has met him, as a diligent rule follower when the rules makes sense but gleeful violator when they don’t. Also a very calculated risk taker who hates needless physical risk.
(This is also me, lol.) So six year old watches Jackass-type stuff and says, “why are these idiots doing this? They could die”
But is also like, “I don’t understand why you and dad have all of the power” and then makes a not totally unreasonable argument for why we don’t deserve it. I mostly keep a straight face.