Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Feb 4 10 tweets 7 min read
⚠️Worrisome—the aggressive #BA2 subvariant of #Omicron has more than **doubled** this week since last UK report—now across all regions. BA2 has been dominant in 🇩🇰 already—prolonging their wave. Other countries be cautious—could make #COVID19 resurge.🧵 gov.uk/government/pub…
2) Here was how #BA2 surged from last week’s report to this week’s cumulative 3832 cases. It’s clearly spreading fast and across all regions of 🇬🇧
3) even in South Africa 🇿🇦- #BA2 has been surging too and replacing the original Omicron. This is not a fluke.
4) We have definitive proof that #BA2 is transmission faster - it has a high growth rate and it has a much higher secondary attack rate in households. These numbers are from UK govt scientists and they don’t lie.
5) How does #BA2’s rise compare? It’s rising quickly - mostly similar to original old #Omicron. But the worrisome thing is that it’s rising despite so many who recently got Omicron already and still it’s outcompeting it— that’s only possible if it has COVID reinfection potential.
6) Denmark 🇩🇰’s CDC is really concerned. The now know #BA2 is about 150% faster than old Omicron. And that that rate bodes badly. They openly admit their Omicron wave prolonged because of it.
7) Denmark is the only major country to date where #BA2 Omicron is dominant… see if you can spot the difference between their #Omicron wave versus others. BA2 is a slowly rising threat— countries cannot let down their guards ➡️ or else the blasé attitude will trigger resurgence!
8) Are hospitalizations in #Ba2 dominant Denmark 🇩🇰 surging? Yes— all time high - including a never before seen ⬆️ surge in psychiatric wards. Notice last year’s surge never saw such a thing before.
9) especially children — hospitalizations in youngest 0-2 age children in Denmark 🇩🇰 now rivaling rates in the elderly! Again, this NEVER happened before last year.
10) The semi good news is that booster efficacy seems similar between BA2 and BA1. But 70% protection against symptomatic infection is not great, asymptomatic likely lower, and we know with old Omicron that booster efficacy wanes to ~45% after 10 weeks.

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More from @DrEricDing

Feb 4
Judge temporarily halts @GlennYoungkin’s executive order forcing schools to make masks optional in Virginia schools after lawsuit from school boards—a major victory for the 7 school boards that sued to stop the order & a sharp rebuke for the new governor. washingtonpost.com/education/2022…
2) Youngkin (R) issued his executive order making masks optional for students in schools, subject to the choices of parents, on his first day in office. It took effect Jan. 24, but the majority of Virginia school districts — at least 70 out of 131 total — are defying the order.
3) The order has earned multiple legal challenges. A group of parents sued three days after Youngkin announced the mask-optional order, and seven school boards — including Fairfax County Public Schools, largest & most prominent district — sued over the order two days after that.
Read 8 tweets
Feb 4
Dr Monica Gandhi has been infamously anti-precautionary & anti-mitigation & wrong time and again. She now wants to end more mitigations—all while #Omicron deaths highs, & #BA2 rising. So @mehdirhasan checks her record—& asks if she’d stop making forecasts:
2) First record check was @mehdirhasan checking how wrong she was about India 🇮🇳 being at herd immunity in FEB 2021– just before India was hit hard by the new Delta variant that likely caused MILLIONS of deaths in April May and June.
3) she also dismissed those of us who wanted about the dangers of new variants and indirectly called it scaremongering about variants. MILLIONS have since been hospitalized and died from more contagious, deadly, and even “milder” variants.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 4
Here is what “mild” #Omicron looks like in Brazil🇧🇷—the steepest rate of ⬆️ surge in cases & #COVID19 deaths in over a year.

📍@jairbolsonaro should maybe solve his country’s suffering instead of Twitter blocking an epidemiologist begging him to save lives.

HT @DrWilliamKu
2) Yes, #COVID-minimizing anti-mask 🇧🇷 President @Jairbolsonaro, who downplayed vaccines, who broke NYC laws and caused an outbreak at the UN, has somehow blocked this epidemiologist on Twitter.
3) here is a graph of cases and deaths in Brazil 🇧🇷 for the past year. #Omicron doesn’t care who you believe or block on Twitter @jairbolsonaro. Focus on saving your people, not saving your face.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 3
🏫Big mask lawsuit—a group of parents of students with disabilities filed a lawsuit against VA Governor @GlennYoungkin, alleging his executive order allowing masks to be optional for schoolchildren violates the Americans With Disabilities Act & other law🧵
richmond.com/news/state-and…
2) The children of the plaintiffs in the lawsuit have such illnesses as cancer, cystic fibrosis, asthma, Down syndrome, lung conditions and weakened immune systems that make COVID-19 more dangerous for them.
3) Because of that, the parents allege that Youngkin, Attorney General Jason Miyares and other officials are excluding their children from access to a public education. The lawsuit is the third filed against Youngkin & state officials since he issued the executive order.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 2
BLOODY HELL—UK 🇬🇧 is proposing to **cease publishing daily #COVID19 death toll** by April under @BorisJohnson’s plan to 'live with Covid'. This is how he and @sajidjavid plan to cover up their pandemic incompetence… scientists are very upset 🧵
msn.com/en-gb/news/wor…
2) “a senior Whitehall source familiar: “The PM has pencilled in Easter as the latest date by which the daily Covid statistics will be published in their current form. In an ideal situation he will bring an end to them sooner if the current downward trend in deaths continues.”
3) “If Covid infections continue to fall this month, Boris Johnson could order changes to the UKHSA’s coronavirus dashboard within weeks, and is understood to have set Easter in mid-April as the deadline to stop the publication of infections, hospital admissions and death data.”
Read 10 tweets
Feb 2
👀Watching—New 🇬🇧data show the Omicron subvariant BA.2 has a ~30% higher ⬆️attack rate of #BA2 in households than old Omicron. BA2’s growth rate is also quite fast ⬆️125% per week! It will overtake old BA1 Omicron & become dominant soon. Stay vigilant.🧵 assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
2) #BA2 is also rivaling BA1 in the initial upswing in England. BA2 will overtake BA1 for certain given what we have seen in Denmark and South Africa. The question is when.
3) So far, the good news for #BA2 is that it seems to respond to boosters similarly well as BA1 — around 70% booster efficacy after 2 weeks against symptomatic infection.
Read 5 tweets

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