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Feb 6 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
Russian military watchers have recently noted that a massive camp in Yelnya, Smolensk region, has nearly emptied.

We believe these vehicles have moved to Bryansk region to the south, to areas just dozens of kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Here is why (thread):
These vehicles belong to the 41st Army of the Central Military District (CMD), transferred to Voronezh in Western Russia from Siberia back in April 2021 and then shifted to Yelnya later that year, as we've extensively covered here:

citeam.org/ru-military-ca…
citeam.org/russian-troops…
CMD vehicles have "87" and "76" codes on theire number plates.

Those codes can be seen in a @FranceTVEurope clip filmed in Klintsy and Klimovo in Bryansk region, as well as in a TikTok video of a Russian military convoy heading south through Smolensk region.
@FranceTVEurope This same CMD convoy, which includes Msta-B towed howitzers and advanced BTR-82 APC, was later filmed further south in Bryansk oblast (h/t @4emberlen @danvan71)
Other evidence suggests vehicles have been moving south by railroad as well, like this train which (according to railcar tracking data) originated from Yelnya and went to Novozybkov, Bryansk region (h/t @Danspiun)

@Danspiun Importantly, the @FranceTVEurope report from Bryansk region also shows vehicles of Russia's National Guard (Rosgvardia), that could be used as occupation/counterinsurgency forces in the event of a large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
@Danspiun @FranceTVEurope The shift of 41st army vehicles, which could be soon joined by personnel, in addition to other units (such as the 20th army based in the area) as well as follow-on NG troops, suggest that one scenario of a Russian attack is a deep thrust south towards Chernihiv and possibly Kyiv.
This is but one of the recent dangerous developments around Ukraine, that include troop transfers to Crimea, Kursk and Rostov regions.

We will continue monitoring the situation closely and will try to keep you as informed as possible.

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More from @CITeam_en

CIT (en) Profile picture
Feb 3
In a new development to our yesterday's warnings on Russia's national guard and possibly riot police redeployment, we and other researchers have observed one of those units stationed close to Ukraine, as well as Chechen Rosgvardia convoys moving northwest
In a social media group for the town of Rossosh (Voronezh region, 40 km from Ukraine), a video was posted showing a large Rosgvardia convoy, alleging that the personnel was stationed at a local vocational school. We geolocated a video of soldiers to the area of said school. ImageImage
Even more worryingly, a TikTok video and a photo from our source shows convoys of two different Chechen Rosgvardia units.

They are de facto part of brutal warlord Ramzan Kadyrov's personal army, and, should they go into Ukraine, would be even less accountable in their conduct. Image
Read 4 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Feb 2
In a worrying development, we and other researchers have observed vehicles characteristic of Russia's National Guard Troops and possibly riot police (both part of the same umbrella organization "Rosgvardia") moving on roads and trains across European Russia.
This video, likely filmed in Konosha, south of Arkhangelsk, shows a train with BTR-80 APCs, Ural-VV and Zvezda-V armored trucks and a Rosgvardia Traffic Police vehicle.

Railcar tracking data suggests the train is going south from Arkhangelsk.
In another video, filmed in Tula, you can see another Zvezda-V armored truck and several gray trucks with red stripes and grated windows, intended to transport personnel and detainees, which you may remember from videos of protests in Russia.
Read 11 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Jan 17
Today @MotolkoHelp posted photographs and a video of a train carrying Russian military vehicles, reportedly filmed near Minsk, Belarus.

According to railcar trackers, the train comes from Ruzhino station in Russia's Far East.



@MotolkoHelp The closest unit to Ruzhino station is 16th Radiation, Biological and Chemical Defence Brigade of the Eastern Military District based in Lesozavodsk.

One of the vehicles seen on the train matches an RHM-6 Chemical Reconnaissance Vehicle.
@MotolkoHelp In a recent comment on TikTok, a woman writes that her soldier son recently left Lesozavodsk with his unit's vehicles, having signed a "paper" (possibly a none-disclosure agreement).

Many other comments left by soldiers and their acquaintances mention deployment to Belarus.
Read 4 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Jan 15
Recently we and other researchers have observed videos with what we believe are launchers and other vehicles of Iskander-M operational and tactical missile systems, moving west on trains across Russia, some as far west as the Urals. ImageImageImage
Railcar tracking data tells us that trains carrying Iskander-M elements originate from at least two points: Ulan-Ude and Birobidzhan, close to the bases of Iskander-armed 103rd and 107th Missile Brigades, respectively.

TikTok comments also mention 107th Brigade on the move. Image
Iskander-M brigades are army-level assets, which suggests that the westward movements from all four armies the Western Military District that we have observed earlier involve significant elements of those armies, not just separate battalion tactical groups
Read 6 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Jan 12
In the past week, we and other researchers have noticed videos on social media showing military vehicles on trains in Russia's Far East, moving West.

Trucks, tanks IFVs and MLRS can be seen on the flatbed railcars. Eyewitnesses report several trains per week or even per day.
Russia's security services take steps to hide those trains from open databases, but indirect data points to departure from the bases of all four armies of Russia's Eastern Military District.

Some trains are already seen further west than the EMD, suggesting unusual redeployment.
Given that Russia's paratroopers are soon to leave Kazakhstan, the only other likely destination is near Ukraine, where they'd join other Russian units already there.

Videos filmed from the trains themselves suggest at least some personnel is moving with the vehicles.
Read 5 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Apr 22, 2021
1/
Today @mod_russia's Sergei Shoigu gave an order to pull troops amassed around Ukraine back to their bases.

Here's why it is too early to stop worrying (yet)

tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/1…
2/ First, the order states that the equipment of the 41st army (which includes tanks and heavy MLRS), transferred from Siberia, is to remain in a camp south of Voronezh until Zapad-2021 strategic military exercises which aren't due till September.

3/
 With the vehicles already in place, transferring just the personnel back to Voronezh would take days, not weeks.

It also should be noted that the order states the pullout will complete as early as May 1, while the initial deployment took nearly a month.
Read 5 tweets

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