🆕 Omicron [O] and Delta [D] outcomes for hospitalizations, deaths and by vaccines in > 1 million O and ~450,000 D cases in England papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
—75% reduced hospitalization risk for O vs D
—For O, Booster >70% protection vs hospitalizations and deaths across all ages
2 and 3 dose vaccine effects vs hospitalization (both AZ and mRNA)
and
Prior Covid, without vaccination, had moderate protection (HR 0.53) vs hospitalization for Omicron, and high protection vs death.
Children age < 10 had infrequent hospital admissions and the incidence did not differ significantly between Delta and Omicron
mRNA booster protection vs Omicron for 12+ weeks
Hospitalization 81%
Death 87%
(Point estimates, see Table for HR 95% confidence intervals)
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Infection, unvaccinated vs Omicron
Hospitalization 45%
Death 82%, note wide 95% CI
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New: Assessment of an Omicron-specific booster vs Moderna original (vs ancestral) booster in macaques: no difference
"An Omicron boost may not provide greater immunity or protection compared to a boost with the current mRNA-1273 vaccine" biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
Interesting to note that the same was seen for the Beta variant with the Pfizer vaccine, original vaccine booster vs Beta-specific booster, which led to abandoning that strategy.
3rd shots of the original vaccines are performing far better than expected 👍
A very good thread on the new Omicron-specific booster study and the overarching issue by @erlichya
New @CDCgov
Reduction of death by vaccination and booster by age, per 100,00 people, vs unvaccinated, relative, with absolute data below covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
Age 65+
2 shot 92% reduced
3 shot 99% reduced
Age 50-64
2 shot 95% reduced
3 shot 99% reduced
By age: cases and vaccination/booster status
As cases were rising steeply in December with emergence of Omicron, booster vs 2-shot was associated with 50% or more reduction of cases across the 3 age groups
And much higher % drop for vaccination vs unvaccinated
Which goes along with this new data posted showing booster had vaccine effectiveness of >60% vs Omicron infections covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
US lagging European peers by vaccine doses and boosters, especially notable in age 60+
"On December 20, 30% of people in the US over-65 had gone six months since receiving a second dose, compared with just 2% in Portugal; 5 per cent in England; and 7% in Denmark."
Graphic that shows differences in vaccination waning for US vs England, Denmark and Portugal, age 60+
Brief update on Omicron, and its BA.1 and BA.2 lineages (sisters) 1. Origin—the 3 theories for how this hyper-mutated version of the virus evolved nature.com/articles/d4158…@nature
3. The BA.2 variant is spreading widely, throughout many countries in Europe and Asia, out-competing BA.1, indicating higher transmissibility. But the good news from yesterday's @UKHSA: vaccination + boost is holding up quite well; there's no indication of more immune evasion
2. The vaccine effectiveness (VE) vs Omicron symptomatic infection vs Omicron falls off 15+ weeks, as was seen with the Israeli data, here more so with Pfizer compared to Moderna
3. But protection (VE) vs Omicron hospitalization remains quite high (Moderna > 90% thru 9 weeks)
ICU admits may be the best proxy for lack of vaccinations. Israel and the US have low rates of vaccination (65, 63%) and have seen rising ICU rates in their Omicron waves (not seen in high vaxx % countries) @OurWorldInData
Clarification: Colors are swapped on the vaccine right-sided panels. Israel has slightly more 2-shot vaccination and >2X boosters
Important graph from @StavKislev that supports my point