Thread by @smitagnair

1.Can past elections and a plebiscite throw light on the way #Goa will vote in  #GoaElections2022? A #thread.

You can read my earlier three threads on Goa election here:

Thread 1:

https://twitter.com/threadreaderapp/status/1488853419133702144?s=20&t=5-cSiFqXkvVe3DrOLLdbIw

Thread 2:

https://twitter.com/smitagnair/status/1489494041440157698?s=20&t=5-cSiFqXkvVe3DrOLLdbIw

Thread 3:

https://twitter.com/smitagnair/status/1489984019169263621?s=20&t=5-cSiFqXkvVe3DrOLLdbIw

2. Goa’s regional rival parties United Goans (UG) and Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) were formed around Goa’s first polls in 1963. Are the political faultlines of that time mirrored in the way the electorate votes for Congress or BJP today?

3. Despite being India’s smallest state by size, Goa hosts multiple ideologies. A colonial legacy, faith and identity politics often intersect to form complex geographical subdivisions.

4. First the geography: Despite the north-south division of Goa in the tourism and state administrative maps, the colonial grouping of municipalities still holds ground.

5. The Portuguese conquered Goa in phases, between 1510 and 1788.

The coastal talukas of Bardez, Tiswadi, Mormugao and Salcete were the first to be captured and are known as the 'Old Conquests’ (Velhas Conquistas)

6. Territories to their north, east and south merged two centuries later to form the ‘New Conquests’(Novas Conquistas). 

The Portuguese had dismissed their conversion missions by then and the areas remained largely Hindu, despite being under Portuguese rule for nearly 200 years.

7. Goa’s modern political story begins on December 19, 1961 when Indian troops stormed this tiny strip of land between the Western Ghats and the Arabian Sea and drove the Portuguese out.

8.A question emerged: should Goa remain separate or be merged with Maharashtra? The demand to merge was driven by a section of Hindus who identified with Maharashtrian culture and considered Marathi a “superior language” due to its use in religious songs and literature.

9. Those against the merger were an interesting mix of natives of all faiths, keen to preserve a separate Goan identity and Konkani as their language. 

Christians in particular feared losing political agency if the state merged with Maharashtra.

10. Two regional parties were formed in the run-up to the first election in 1963, with their views on the merger being the defining factor: Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP), driven by a predominantly Hindu leadership, and United Goans Party (UGP) with a core Christian group.

11. In Goa’s first polls in 1963, MGP bagged 14 of 30 seats: 10 from new conquest areas and four from the old conquest. UGP won 12 seats - only one of them coming from the new conquest. 
Congress, despite claiming credit for Goa’s liberation, drew a blank.

12. Upon being elected to power, the MGP government led by Dayanand Bandodkar tried to execute a merger with Maharashtra through a legislative bill. 

UGP - led by Dr.Jack Sequeira - took the matter to New Delhi, citing Nehru's assurance in '63 to let Goans decide their fate.

13. It eventually fell to Indira Gandhi to fulfil her father's promise. She assented to Independent India’s first, and only, plebiscite.

14. On January 16, 1967, 54% of the 3.17 lakh voters chose a separate Goan identity. 

14 of the 16 constituencies in Old Conquest region voted against the merger, while 10 of the 12 from New Conquests voted for it.

15. In Salcete taluka - that accounted for 1/5th of Goa's population at the time - less than 15% of voters favoured the merger.

16. Interestingly, in assembly polls a few months later, MGP regained all the constituencies they had ceded in the referendum and came back to power with 16 seats against UGP’s 12. 

Congress drew a blank again, despite keeping its promise of a referendum.

17. Dividing Goa into 'pro-merger' and 'anti-merger' areas on the basis of these results can give many insights into its political equations since 1967.

18. MGP ruled the state for the next 12 years; Bandodkar was succeeded as CM upon his death by his daughter Shashikala Kakodkar.

UGP continued to be the primary opposition as Congress managed only 1 seat in the '72 polls.

19. In most states, Congress experienced splits over the years leading to the formation of regional parties. In Goa, it was the opposite: the Urs faction of the INC formed the first non-MGP government of Goa in 1980 after splinter groups from both the MGP and UGP joined it.

20. In 1981, 28 of Goa's 30 MLAs- including Shashikala Kakodkar - joined INC(I) as Indira Gandhi consolidated power nationally. The party would rule Goa for the entire decade with ex-MGP man Pratapsingh Rane as CM.

In 1987, Goa was granted statehood and a 40-member assembly.

21. The MGP, having been reduced to two MLAs in 1981, posted a steady resurgence, ending up with 18 seats in the 1989 elections. Again, all but four of these were in the pro-merger area — they had regained their turf.

22. The 90s saw the most turbulent period in Goa's politics. After a decade of stability, Goa's CM changed 13 times in 9 years with seven different leaders occupying the chair and two impositions of President’s rule.

23. Even as MLAs repeatedly re-aligned in the house, Congress continued to win the people’s mandate, comfortably winning the 1994 and 1999 polls.

On the other side of the aisle, a new force was emerging.

24. After a debut with four seats in the 1994 polls, the BJP won 10 seats in 1999. In 2002, it overtook the Congress with 17 seats and formed the government with support from allies.

25. The BJP had replaced MGP as the preferred party in most pro-merger constituencies, winning 11 seats in the region.

It also emerged victorious in urban centres - Mapusa, Panaji, Vasco, Margao and Fatorda - anti-merger areas whose demographics had changed due to migration.

26. After a resurgence by Congress in 2007 polls, the BJP decided to take a more radical approach in the 2012 elections.

It decided to raid Congress's home turf — fielding Catholic faces in anti-merger constituencies that had been held by the Congress for years.

27. Manohar Parrikar also launched a 'Mission Salcete' to capture the eight -constituency Taluka that had been dominated by the Congress for decades.

28. Sensing that the predominantly Christian population may not be comfortable voting for the lotus, the party extended support – explicit and implicit – to a newly-formed local party and a few independent candidates.

29. The approach worked. BJP won an absolute majority in the house for the first time ever with 21 of the 40 seats. Congress was reduced to nine seats, and Parrikar-backed candidates almost swept Salcete.

30. Having sent only one Catholic legislator to the house till then, BJP sent six in 2012 – all from anti-merger areas. Another four from Salcete sat on the ruling benches as allies.

The BJP had turned into a pan-Goa force — much like the Congress of the 80s and 90s.

31. The 2017 polls were even stranger. Even though BJP went from 21 to 13 seats after five years in power, none of their Catholic MLAs lost. In fact, a pre-poll entrant from Congress meant that it now had seven Catholic MLAs in the house — all from anti-merger constituencies.

32. The number increased to 15 after ten Congress MLAs, eight of them Catholics, defected to the BJP in July 2019. 

The BJP now had more Christian MLAs in Goa than the Congress or the UGP had at their peak.

33. Now the 2022 polls: Having Christian MLAs and getting Christian votes are two very different things, and BJP is well aware of this. After becoming a pan-Goa party, this is their toughest poll, where they face the daunting task of protecting their turf.

34. Despite losing most of its MLAs, Congress continues to have a strong base in anti-merger areas. In 2017 polls, all three of its first-time MLAs came from here. Forced to field a fresh crop of leaders after its old guard left, the party will count on the region again.

35. Resurgence in pro-merger areas might be tougher for the Congress. All its six winners here in 2017 had been MLAs for at least two terms previously. Congress faces an uphill task to replace these leaders who had become synonymous with the party in the area.

36. While the Congress is likely to eat into BJP seats in the anti-merger areas, the MGP would try to do the same in the pro-merger areas.

37. Eleven of the thirteen seats MGP will contest are from pro-merger areas and the party hopes to regain some of its lost glory in the region and wrest it back from BJP. But will they?

38. BJP and Congress have dominated Goa's politics for the last two decades, sending at least 30 MLAs to the house between them. In this election, both face the challenge of protecting their turf in a battle for supremacy over the state's convoluted political terrain.

39. That’s it for today.

Want to know more about Goa? / Think you already know your Goa history?

Try this #Quiz by Goa’s noted quizmaster @rajivdsilva
forms.gle/8oRujoLmwtmZBn…

Another #GoaElection2022 thread, soon.

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